Last week, we detailed Joe Biden's current electoral college advantage in the upcoming presidential election (see Biden Surge and Trump Failures). In this article, we expand on the winning scenarios we briefly touched on before. A recent Axios poll (see Axios, June 30), shows that only 19 percent of Republicans ...

The November 2020 general election is fast approaching, and Democrats now have a clear lead in 18 states. This tranche provides the presumptive nominee Joe Biden with a base of 212 electoral votes—58 short of the required 270. Four more states—Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire—with 36 electoral votes are ...

The Democratic House majority is in a strong position as we enter the election year in just a few short weeks. Democrats have three distinct advantages going into 2020—one of which is surprising and unexpected. Advantage 1: Incumbent Strength A majority of the seemingly vulnerable Democratic freshmen show above average ...

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week contains a few surprises in Trump's favor, but also reveals obstacles in the way of a his re-election, as well as indicators to shape Democrats’ strategy for maintaining control of Congress. Here’s what stands out most to us in the report: ...

With nearly two dozen candidates competing for the Democratic nomination and a clear divide over impeachment of Donald Trump, the Democratic presidential primary election is looking to be a tumultuous affair. Despite this, a national path to victory is already taking shape. Benchmark data indicate that Democrats can repeat the success ...

After a long wait, voters have a chance to deliver their verdict on the first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. With the election tomorrow, history suggests that the Democrats are poised to make big gains in Congress, including the potential for control of the House of Representatives. But unlike ...

In 2017, we analyzed the core indicators of seat change in a midterm election—presidential approval, voter enthusiasm, direction of the country, and the generic congressional ballot. At the time, these indicators painted a muddled picture of American political attitudes but showed reason for Democratic optimism. Now just six weeks from ...

A series of recently released polls shows that President Trump is losing support among independent voters, a growing segment of the population that was key to his victory in 2016. According to the 2016 US House exit polls, Trump carried Independents by 4 points (46% – 42%); other analyses give ...