How to Make Sure Trump Loses

Last week, we detailed Joe Biden's current electoral college advantage in the upcoming presidential election (see Biden Surge and Trump Failures). In this article, we expand on the winning scenarios we briefly touched on before. A recent Axios poll (see Axios, June 30), shows that only 19 percent of Republicans ...

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Biden Surge and Trump Failures Expand Electoral Map

The November 2020 general election is fast approaching, and Democrats now have a clear lead in 18 states. This tranche provides the presumptive nominee Joe Biden with a base of 212 electoral votes—58 short of the required 270. Four more states—Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire—with 36 electoral votes are ...

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Trump Weaknesses Remain Despite Recent Polling

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week contains a few surprises in Trump's favor, but also reveals obstacles in the way of a his re-election, as well as indicators to shape Democrats’ strategy for maintaining control of Congress. Here’s what stands out most to us in the report: ...

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Suburbs Remain Key to 2020 Democratic Majority

In 2020, Democratic House candidates face a more complex situation than they did in 2018. The Democratic party now faces competing priorities—while they look to win additional congressional districts that are trending Democratic (especially in Texas), they must also work to protect the multitude of freshman representatives who were elected ...

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Diversity Drives the New Democratic Majority

Examining all 435 congressional districts by the 2016 citizen voting age population (CVAP, 2012 – 2016 American Community Survey 5 year estimates) underscores how an expanded base contributed to the ascent of a new Democratic US House majority. To illustrate this, we ranked districts by their percentage of non-white CVAP, ...

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Election Night 2018

After a long wait, voters have a chance to deliver their verdict on the first two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. With the election tomorrow, history suggests that the Democrats are poised to make big gains in Congress, including the potential for control of the House of Representatives. But unlike ...

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Revisited: Is this a Wave?

In 2017, we analyzed the core indicators of seat change in a midterm election—presidential approval, voter enthusiasm, direction of the country, and the generic congressional ballot. At the time, these indicators painted a muddled picture of American political attitudes but showed reason for Democratic optimism. Now just six weeks from ...

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