Election Night Guide 2022

Election Day is November 8th. After a summer of encouraging news for Democrats, recent coverage is focused on whether we face a Republican takeover of Congress. In the House, the Democratic majority is just five seats. Through a combination of redistricting, retirements, and a tough economic environment, the number of districts that could determine the majority is actually much higher.

Polls Closing at 7:00 – 7:30 p.m. EST (IN, KY: One hour earlier in Eastern Time Zone; FL: One hour later in Central Time Zone)

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats need to gain 1 seat for an outright majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
FLDemingsRUBIORubio +7.5 (↓)Likely Rep
GAWARNOCKWalkerWalker +0.4 (↑)Toss Up
NC*BeasleyBuddBudd +3.8 (↑)Lean Rep
OH*RyanVanceVance +3.9 (↑)Lean Rep
VT*Safe Dem
IN, KY, SCSafe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Democrats have a 5 seat majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
FL-02LAWSON (FL-05 currently)DUNNIncumbent matchup after DeSantis dismantled a formerly Black-dominated districtLikely Rep
FL-13*LynnLunaDem. inc. running for gov.; more Rep. after redistricting Lean Rep
FL-15*CohnLeeNew district in I-4 corridor between Orlando and Tampa; Trump +3Likely Rep
FL-23*MoskowitzBuddOpen seat contest in a Biden +13 districtLikely Dem
FL-27TaddeoSALAZARStrong candidate in a competitive, majority-Hispanic district, has trended Rep.Lean Rep
GA-02BISHOPWestRural, Black Belt district also contains Rep. areasLikely Dem
IN-01MRVANGreenWorking-class district trending Rep. in recent electionsLean Dem
NC-01*DavisSmithOpen seat in a rural 40% Black district; some areas trending Rep.Likely Dem
NC-06MANNINGCastelliGreensboro-based district; more Rep. after redistrictingLikely Dem
NC-11*Beach-FerraraEdwardsOpen seat contest in a Trump +10 districtLikely Rep
NC-13*NickelHinesNew district; Biden +2; highly educated electorateToss Up
NC-14*JacksonHarriganNew district; Biden +16 and Charlotte-basedLikely Dem
OH-01LandsmanCHABOTCincinnati-based district; more competitive after redistrictingToss Up
OH-09KAPTURMajewskiMore Rep. after redistricting; weak Rep. candidateLean Dem
OH-13*SykesGilbertRedistricting substantially changed this districtToss Up
VA-02LURIAKiggansStrong Rep. candidate in a Trump ’16/Biden ’20 district, anchored by Virginia BeachToss Up
VA-07SPANBERGERVegaDiverse, highly educated voters; more Dem. after redistricting; 73% of district comprised of new votersLean Dem
VA-10WEXTONCaoAffluent Dem. exurbs/suburbs in Washington DC metro area; competitive in a wave electionLikely Dem

Polls Closing at 8:00 – 8:30 p.m. EST (MI: One hour later in Central Time Zone; KS, TX: One hour later in Mountain Time Zone)

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats need to gain 1 seat for an outright majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
NHHASSANBolducHassan +3.2 (↑)Lean Dem
PA*FettermanOzFetterman +0.4 (↓)Toss Up
CT, IL, MDSafe Dem
AL*, AR, KS, MO*, OK, OK Special*Safe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Democrats have a 5 seat majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
CT-05HAYESLoganTwo-term Dem. incumbent challenged by high Rep. spendingLean Dem
IL-06CASTENPekauCompetitive suburban district; more Dem. after redistrictingLikely Dem
IL-11FOSTERLaufMore competitive after redistricting; strong Dem. incumbentLikely Dem
IL-13*BudzinskiDeeringNew district links academic and culturally vibrant communitiesLean Dem
IL-17*SorensenKingOpen seat contest in a renowned toss-up districtLean Dem
KS-03DAVIDSAdkinsDem. pickup in 2020; more Rep. after redistrictingLean Dem
MD-01MizeurHARRISEastern Shore district became slightly more Dem. after redistricting; strong Dem. fundraisingLikely Rep
MD-06TRONEParrottMore Rep. after redistricting; strong Dem. fundraisingLikely Dem
ME-02GOLDENPoliquinDem. incumbent in a district Trump won twice by substantial margins; competitive in congressional contestsLean Dem
MI-03*ScholtenGibbsInc. Rep. lost primary to weak candidate; Dem. pickup opportunityLean Dem
MI-07SLOTKIN (MI-08 currently)BarrettSuburban district; tailor made battlegroundToss Up
MI-08KILDEE (MI-05 currently)JungeRedistricting substantially changed this district; Biden +2Lean Dem
MI-10*MarlingaJamesOpen seat contest in a Trump +2 districtLean Rep
NH-01PAPPASLeavittStrong Dem. incumbent; always a toss-up district; Rep. candidate is former Trump staffer and election denierLean Dem
NH-02KUSTERBurnsStrong Dem. incumbent; always a toss-up districtLikely Dem
NJ-02AlexanderVAN DREWFormer Dem. pickup where inc. changed partiesLikely Rep
NJ-03KIMHealeyMore Dem. after redistricting but remains competitive in a wave; Biden +14Likely Dem
NJ-07MALINOWSKIKeanAffluent swing district won by Trump in 2016; more Rep. after redistrictingToss Up
PA-01EhaszFITZPATRICKSuburban district; tailor made battlegroundLikely Rep
PA-07WILDSchellerCompetitive Lehigh Valley district; more Rep. after redistrictingToss Up
PA-08CARTWRIGHTBognetDem. incumbent in district Trump won twice; area trending Rep.Toss Up
PA-10DanielsPERRYTrump +5 district; less competitive in congressional contestsLikely Rep
PA-17*DeluzioShafferOpen seat contest in west PA suburbs; always a toss-up districtLean Dem
RI-02*MagazinerFungLong time Dem. incumbent retiring; strong Rep. candidateToss Up
TX-15*VallejoDe la CruzOpen seat contest; majority-Latino district in region trending Rep.Likely Rep
TX-28CUELLARGarciaScandal plagued incumbent in Latino region trending Rep.Toss Up
TX-34GONZALEZ (TX-15 currently)FLORESRep. pickup in special election; Dem. district in Latino region trending Rep.Toss Up

Polls Closing at 9:00 p.m. EST (ND, SD: One hour earlier in Central Time Zone)

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats need to gain 1 seat for an outright majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
AZKELLYMastersKelly +1.0 (-)Lean Dem
COBENNETO’DeaBennet +5.3 (↓)Likely Dem
IAFrankenGRASSLEYGrassley +9.6 (↑)Likely Rep
WIBarnesJOHNSONJohnson +2.8 (↓)Lean Rep
NYSafe Dem
LA, ND, SDSafe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Democrats have a 5 seat majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
AZ-01HodgeSCHWEIKERTDistrict combines affluent suburbs and rural areas; Biden +2Toss Up
AZ-02O’HALLERANCraneMore Rep. after redistricting; Dem. inc. in a district Trump won twiceLean Rep
AZ-04STANTONCooperMore Rep. after redistricting; Biden +10; competitive in a wave electionLikely Dem
AZ-06*EngelCiscomaniOpen seat contest in a suburban district; tailor made battlegroundLean Rep
CO-03FrischBOEBERTControversial Rep. incumbent in a district that became more Republican after redistrictingLikely Rep
CO-07*PettersenAadlandLong time Dem. incumbent retiring; more Rep. after redistricting; highly educated, suburban Denver districtLean Dem
CO-08*CaraveoKirkmeyerNew Trump ’16/Biden ’20 suburban district; approx. 30% LatinoToss Up
IA-01BohannanMILLER MEEKSCompetitive but trending Rep. in recent electionsLean Rep
IA-02MathisHINSONCompetitive but trending Rep. in recent electionsLean Rep
IA-03AXNENunnDistrict Trump narrowly won twice; remains competitive after redistrictingToss Up
MN-01EttingerFINSTADRep. underperformed in recent special election; Obama ’12/Trump ’16 districtLikely Rep
MN-02CRAIGKistnerTrump ’16/Biden ’20 district; remains competitive after redistrictingLean Dem
MN-08SchultzSTAUBERFormerly competitive district trending Rep.Likely Rep
NE-01Pansing BrooksFLOODRep. first lady endorsed Dem. candidate; Trump +12Likely Rep
NE-02VargasBACONStrong Dem. fundraising; Rep. incumbent in a Trump’16 /Biden ’20 districtToss Up
NM-01STANSBURYGarcia HolmesAlbuquerque-based district; slightly more Rep. after redistrictingLikely Dem
NM-02VasquezHERRELLTrump-to-Biden swing of +9 pts after redistricting; possible Dem. pickupToss Up
NM-03LEGER FERNANDEZMartinez JohnsonMore Rep. after redistricting; competitive in a wave electionLikely Dem
NY-01*FlemingLaLotaMarginal Rep. inc. running for gov.; more Dem. after redistrictingLean Rep
NY-02GordonGARBARINOCompetitive Long Island district; more Dem. after redistrictingLean Rep
NY-03*ZimmermanSantosOpen seat contest in a Biden +8 district; competitive in a wave electionLean Dem
NY-04*GillenD’EspositoOpen seat contest in a Biden +14 district; competitive in a wave electionLean Dem
NY-11RoseMALLIOTAKISStaten Island-based; rematch former Dem. inc. and current Rep. inc.Likely Rep
NY-17*MALONEY (NY-18 currently)LawlerDem. inc. moving districts; Biden +10Lean Dem
NY-18*RYAN (NY-19 currently)SchmittDem. inc. moving districts; more Dem. after redistrictingLean Dem
NY-19*RileyMolinaroOpen seat contest in a Trump ’16/Biden ’20 districtToss Up
NY-22*ConoleWilliamsOpen seat contest in a competitive Upstate districtToss Up
NY-25MORELLESingletaryBiden +20 but more competitive in recent electionsLikely Dem
WI-01RoeSTEILCompetitive suburban district; more Dem. after redistrictingLikely Rep
WI-03*PfaffVan OrdenDem. incumbent retiring; Trump +5Lean Rep

Polls Closing at 10:00 – 11:00 p.m. EST; Mail-in/Other

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats need to gain 1 seat for an outright majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
NVCORTEZ MASTOLaxaltLaxalt +2.4 (↑)Toss Up
WAMURRAYSmileyMurray +6.1 (↓)Likely Dem
CA, HI, ORSafe Dem
AK, ID, UTSafe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Democrats have a 5 seat majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
AK-01PELTOLAPalin/BegichDem. pickup in special election; competitive due to introduction of ranked choice votingLean Dem
CA-03*JonesKileyRedistricting substantially changed this district; Trump +2Likely Rep
CA-09*HARDER (CA-13 currently)PattiStrong Dem. fundraising; Biden +12Lean Dem
CA-13*GrayDuarteNew majority-Latino district in Central Valley; Biden +10Toss Up
CA-22SalasVALADAOMuch more Dem. after redistricting; a Dem. pickup opportunityToss Up
CA-27SmithGARCIAStrong Dem. candidate; Latino vote could determine outcomeToss Up
CA-40MahmoodKIMMore Rep. after redistricting; from Biden +10 to Biden +2Likely Rep
CA-41RollinsCALVERTStrong Rep. incumbent; more Dem. after redistrictingLikely Rep
CA-45ChenSTEELAsian-plurality district (mostly Vietnamese); Clinton +14 to Biden +6Toss Up
CA-47PORTERBaughRedistricting substantially changed this district; adds more Dem. baseLean Dem
CA-49LEVINMaryottOrange/San Diego County district remains competitive after redistricting; both sides spending profuselyLean Dem
MT-01*TranelZinkeNew district in western MT; Trump +8Likely Rep
NV-01TITUSRobertsonLas Vegas-based district; more competitive after redistrictingLean Dem
NV-03LEEBeckerLas Vegas and Clark Co. suburbs; more Dem. after redistrictingToss Up
NV-04HORSFORDPetersNon-white majority in urban/suburban Clark Co.; more Dem. after redistrictingLean Dem
OR-04*HoyleSkarlatosOpen seat; more Dem. after redistricting but remains competitiveLean Dem
OR-05*McLeod-SkinnerChavez-DeRemerLongtime Dem. incumbent defeated in primary; tough electoral environment in a competitive districtToss Up
OR-06*SalinasEricksonNew district in growing areas that may trend Dem. over timeToss Up
WA-03*Gluesenkamp PerezKentRep. inc. lost primary to far-right challenger; Trump +5 districtLean Rep
WA-08SCHRIERLarkinCompetitive exurban district; trended Dem. in last two electionsToss Up