In 2020, Democratic House candidates face a more complex situation than they did in 2018. The Democratic party now faces competing priorities—while they look to win additional congressional districts that are trending Democratic (especially in Texas), they must also work to protect the multitude of freshman representatives who were elected in marginal and Republican districts in 2018. The greatest potential for defeating Republicans in 2020 comes from the growing resistance to Trump in the nation’s suburban and exurban communities.
The Democrats have a safety net after winning 40 or 41 seats (depending on the final outcome in North Carolina’s 9th). Republicans, on the other hand, would have to flip 17 or 18 districts to gain a majority in 2020. While some new Democratic members face an uphill battle for re-election (especially those elected to rural, blue collar, and southern districts) there are several factors working in favor of all Democratic candidates.
First, President Trump’s approval rating continues to sink even lower than it was during the 2018 midterm election. A near-majority of voters have indicated they will not even consider voting to re-elect him. In presidential election years, there is a strong correlation between the vote for President and the vote for Congress.
Republicans made most of their previous gains in midterm election years (like 1994, 2010, and 2014) and this was partially due to the incumbent president’s favorability. While Barack Obama and Bill Clinton were ultimately successful presidents, their approval ratings were below 50 percent at the time of those midterm elections.
Morning Consult and Gallup recently published state-by-state presidential approval ratings showing Trump near or below 50 percent in every fast-growing state in the country—including Arizona, Florida, and Texas. Trump would have to carry each of these states again to stand a chance of re-election. These states will also host marginal congressional races in 2020. In blue collar and rural areas of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—all of which Trump won in 2016—respondents seem far less supportive of Trump. This latter point weighs heavily against any re-election bid as Trump’s 2016 victory was dependent on those regions.
Trump is distinctly unpopular in suburban areas with rapid population growth. Conversely, he is more popular in rural and small-town districts, but new population centers encompassing more minority and younger voters will drive turnout. Further, minority turnout (among Latinos especially) is higher in presidential years.
A positive environment could emerge for the 2020 election cycle, but it is still early to estimate the final outcome.
Some Early Scenarios to Consider
1) Democrats must play defense in several long-held Republican districts, where at least a part of the district reflects lower socioeconomic status:
| District | NCEC’s Democratic Performance (as of Nov. 2018) |
US House 2018 Democratic Margin |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-10 | 49.0% | 4.5% | Longtime Republican district in the Central Valley that Clinton carried in 2016 |
| IA-03 | 49.1% | 2.2% | Des Moines urban and suburban areas |
| ME-02 | 47.2% | 1.2% | Trump district that became competitive in the wave election |
| NM-02 | 45.8% | 1.9% | Longtime Republican district made competitive when the Rep. incumbent retired |
| NY-19 | 48.3% | 5.3% | Suburban and rural district, in the NYC media market |
| NY-22 | 46.1% | 1.8% | Decided by 5 points or less in three of the last four elections |
| SC-01 | 40.5% | 1.4% | Longtime Republican district made competitive when the Rep. incumbent lost the primary |
| UT-04 | 42.7% | 0.3% | A strong Dem. candidate flipped this regularly competitive district |
2) Districts where demographics are favorable, but Democrats do not comprise a majority of the population:
| District | NCEC’s Democratic Performance (as of Nov. 2018) |
US House 2018 Democratic Margin |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-45 | 43.6% | 4.1% | Orange County, highly educated, trending Democratic |
| CA-48 | 43.5% | 7.1% | More than 43% of adults have a bachelor’s or higher |
| GA-06 | 38.7% | 1.0% | Suburban Atlanta district that was targeted after a close special election in 2017 |
| IL-06 | 43.7% | 7.2% | Highly educated district |
| IL-14 | 41.7% | 5.0% | Highly educated suburban district made competitive in the wave election |
| KS-03 | 48.4% | 9.9% | Lawrence-based district made competitive with university influence |
| MI-08 | 46.8% | 3.9% | Upscale district, sizable population of educated voters |
| MI-11 | 46.5% | 6.9% | More than 45.4% of adults have a bachelor’s or higher |
| MN-02 | 49.2% | 5.5% | Exurban district that is trending Democratic |
| NJ-03 | 48.7% | 1.3% | Suburban district made competitive in the wave election |
| NV-03 | 48.7% | 9.6% | Las Vegas-based district trending Democratic |
| TX-07 | 44.1% | 5.1% | Clinton carried this district, has a voting population that is more than 42% non-white |
| TX-32 | 45.7% | 6.6% | Highly educated district, carried by Clinton |
| VA-02 | 48.6% | 2.2% | Virginia Beach area, district is trending Democratic |
| VA-07 | 46.0% | 2.0% | A strong Dem. candidate defeated the too-conservative Rep. incumbent in a trending competitive district |
| WA-08 | 48.7% | 4.8% | Longtime Republican district made competitive when the Rep. incumbent retired |
3) Battleground districts:
| District | NCEC’s Democratic Performance (as of Nov. 2018) |
US House 2018 Democratic Margin |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-02 | 52.3% | 9.5% | Suburban Phoenix district, more than 20% Latino |
| CA-25 | 47.0% | 8.7% | A district that Clinton carried and became more competitive in the wave election |
| CA-39 | 46.8% | 3.1% | Highly educated district targeted when the Rep. incumbent retired |
| IA-01 | 51.0% | 5.2% | Regularly competitive district in a state trending Democratic |
| NY-11 | 52.8% | 6.5% | Longtime Republican district made competitive in the wave election |
| PA-07 | 50.8% | 10.3% | Suburban district made competitive following court-ordered redistricting |
There are other districts warranting attention, but for starters, we assume there will be a competitive race in most, or all of these districts.
4) Democrats gained 2 seats in Texas in 2018. The potential for more gains are palpable. The same trends that unseated Pete Sessions (Texas 32) and John Culberson (Texas 7) are also emerging in these districts:
| District | NCEC’s Democratic Performance (as of Nov. 2018) |
US House 2018 Democratic Margin |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| TX-02 | 40.3% | -7.4% | Suburban Houston district |
| TX-21 | 41.1% | -2.7% | Suburban San Antonio district |
| TX-24 | 40.5% | -3.1% | Suburban Dallas-Ft. Worth district |
| TX-25 | 41.8% | -8.9% | Suburban Austin-to-Ft. Worth district in west Central Texas |
| TX-31 | 39.6% | -3.0% | Suburban Central Texas district in one of the fastest-growing areas in the country |
5) Several near misses in 2018 are also in jeopardy for the GOP in 2020:
| District | NCEC’s Democratic Performance (as of Nov. 2018) |
US House 2018 Democratic Margin |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| GA-07 | 39.2% | -0.2% | One of the closest races in the country in 2018 – this Atlanta exurban district is a mirror image of Georgia 6 flipped by Democrat Lucy McBath in 2018 |
| IA-04 | 40.6% | -3.4% | Home of white nationalist Steve King, a veteran Republican who barely survived in 2018 |
| MI-06 | 45.4% | -4.7% | Urban-Suburban district where Republican Fred Upton was almost defeated in 2018 |
| MN-01 | 48.3% | -0.5% | The closest race in the country in 2018. Although still a small town-rural district, the suburban area around Rochester is emerging as a threatening factor to the Republican incumbent |
| NY-01 | 49.7% | -4.1% | Regularly competitive Long Island districts |
| NY-02 | 48.6% | -6.2% | |
| NY-24 | 50.3% | -5.3% | Competitive Syracuse-based district |
| OH-01 | 43.5% | -4.5% | Emerging suburban and exurban segments of Cincinnati and Columbus |
| OH-12 | 43.5% | -4.3% | |
| PA-01 | 49.9% | -2.5% | A prototypical suburban Philadelphia district located in Montgomery County. Only an anemic Democratic candidate saved the Republicans in 2018 |
Even if half of the embattled Democratic incumbents lost (an idea we consider highly unlikely), the House is set to remain in Democratic hands. There are a large number of vulnerable Republican incumbents and a handful of wins in these contests will likely offset any Democratic losses elsewhere—the result cannot significantly shift the partisan balance.