Election Night Guide 2024

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Click the image to download a printable PDF of our Election Night Guide for the 2024 Presidential-year Election—or see below.

7:00 – 7:30 PM EST (IN, KY: One hour earlier in Eastern Time Zone counties; FL: One hour later in Central Time Zone counties)

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
FLMucarsel-PowellSCOTTScott +4.5Lean Rep
OHBROWNMorenoBrown +1.7Lean Dem
VA, VT (I)Safe Dem (or Ind)
IN*, WV*Safe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
FL-13FoxLUNASt. Petersburg district with far right freshman incumbent; 2x Trump districtLean Rep
NC-01DAVISBuckhoutLong-time Dem., mostly rural, 39% Black district; some areas trending Rep.Lean Dem
OH-01LANDSMANSonzaCincinatti-based competitive district; Biden +8.6Lean Dem
OH-09KAPTURMerrinLong-time Dem. rep. in Toledo-based, 2x Trump districtLean Dem
OH-13SYKESCoughlinAkron and Canton-based district; D +5.4 margin in 2022Toss-up
VA-02Cotter SmasalKIGGANSRep. freshman in a Trump/Biden Virginia Beach-based district; Biden +1.8Toss-up
VA-07*VindmanAndersonOpen seat district with diverse, highly educated votersLean Dem

8:00 – 8:30 PM EST (MI: One hour later in Central Time Zone counties; KS, TX: One hour later in Mountain Time Zone counties)

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
MD*AlsobrooksHoganAlsobrooks +11.3Lean Dem
MI*SlotkinRogersSlotkin +3.9Lean Dem
PACASEYMcCormickCasey + 2.8Toss-up
TXAllredCRUZCruz +3.3Lean Rep
CT, DE, MA, ME (I), NJ, RISafe Dem (or Ind)
MO, MS, ND, TNSafe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
CT-05HAYESLoganRematch in district with D +0.8 2022 margin; Biden 55.5% in 2020Lean Dem
IL-17SORENSENMcGrawDems protecting renowned toss-up district; includes Rockford and PeoriaLean Dem
MD-06*McClain-DelaneyParrottLong-time Dem. district; includes pt. Montgomery, all Frederick and PanhandleLean Dem
ME-02GOLDENTheriaultRural Maine; highly competitive in congressional contests; 2x Trump districtToss-up
MI-03SCHOLTENHudsonFreshman rep. defending 2022 Dem. pickup won with 13.4% marginLean Dem
MI-07*HertelBarrettOpen seat in suburban, tailor made battlegroundToss-up
MI-08*McDonald RivetJungeOpen seat in competitive, long-time Dem. districtToss-up
MI-10MarlingaJAMESRep. freshman in third closest 2022 US House district, decided by 1,601 votesToss-up
NJ-07AltmanKEAN, JR.Highly educated district; Biden +3.8Toss-up
PA-01EhaszFITZPATRICKLong-targeted Rep. incumbent in Biden +4.8 districtLean Rep
PA-07WILDMacKenzieCompetitive Lehigh Valley district; Biden +0.6. Large Puerto Rican PopulationLean Dem
PA-08CARTWRIGHTBresnahanDem. incumbent in 2x Trump district; area trending Rep.; Trump +3Lean Dem
PA-10StelsonPERRYLong-targeted Rep. incumbent opposed certification of 2020 election resultToss-up
PA-17DELUZIOMercuriWest PA suburban battlegroundLean Dem
TX-15VallejoDE LA CRUZLatino majority district in region trending Rep.Lean Rep
TX-28CUELLARFurmanScandal plagued incumbent in Latino region trending Rep.Lean Dem
TX-34GONZALEZFloresLatino majority district in region trending Rep.Lean Dem

9:00 PM EST (ND, SD: One hour earlier in Central Time Zone counties)

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
AZ*GallegoLakeGallego +5.0Lean Dem
NEOsborn (I)FISCHERFischer +2.4Toss-up
WIBALDWINHovdeBaldwin +2.3Lean Dem
MN, NM, NYSafe Dem
WYSafe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
AZ-01ShahSCHWEIKERTSuburban, highly educated Phoenix/Scottsdale district; Biden +1.4Toss-up
AZ-02NezCRANEFormerly Dem. held; 2x Trump districtLean Rep
AZ-06EngelCISCOMANIRematch in district with R +1.4 2022 margin; Biden +0.2Toss-up
CO-03*FrischHurdFrisch lost by 546 votes to Lauren Boebert in ’22; Boebert now in CO-04; Trump +19Lean Rep
CO-08CARAVEOEvansDem. freshman in Trump/Biden suburban district; approx. 30% LatinoToss-up
IA-01BohannanMILLER-MEEKSCompetitive in recent elections; Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes in 2020Toss-up
IA-03BaccamNUNNDes Moines urban & suburban areas; 2022 race decided by 2,144 votesToss-up
NE-02VargasBACONRep. incumbent in highly targeted Omaha Trump/Biden district; Biden +6.4Lean Dem
NM-02VASQUEZHerrellDem. pickup in 2022; remains competitive. Biden +6; 56.1% LatinoLean Dem
NY-01AvlonLALOTASuffolk Co.-based district; perennial Dem. targetLean Rep
NY-04GillenD’ESPOSITORep. freshman in long-time Dem. district; Biden +14.3Lean Dem
NY-17JonesLAWLERRep. freshman in Westchester and Rockland-based district; Biden +10.1Lean Rep
NY-18RYANEspositoCompetitive district in Dutchess, Orange, Ulster counties; D +1.2 2022 marginLean Dem
NY-19RileyMOLINAROCompetitive rematch in Upstate NY; Biden +4.6Toss-up
NY-22MannionWILLIAMSDistrict in Syracuse and Utica is best Dem. pickup oppportunity; Biden +11.6Lean Dem
WI-01BarcaSTEILStrong Dem. candidate in historically Rep., Southeast WI districtLean Rep
WI-03CookeVAN ORDENRep. pickup in 2022 with 3.8% margin; remains competitiveToss-up

10:00 – 11:00 PM EST; Mail-in/Other

US Senate

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
MTTESTERSheehySheehy +5.4Lean Rep
NVROSENBrownRosen +6.1Lean Dem
CA*, WA, HISafe Dem
UT*Safe Rep

US House

* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
† House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.
State/District Democrat Republican Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. NCEC Rating
AK-01PELTOLABegich IIIFreshman rep. in a Republican-leaning state/district; Trump +10.6Toss-up
CA-03MorseKILEYFormerly Dem. district; based in Placer Co. and runs along Nevada borderLean Rep
CA-13GrayDUARTESan Joaquin Valley rematch decided by 546 votes in 2022; Biden +10.6Toss-up
CA-22SalasVALADAOSan Joaquin Valley rematch decided by 3.0% in 2022; 69.3% Latino & Biden +12.6Toss-up
CA-27WhitesidesGARCIANorth Los Angeles Co. district with Dem. registration advantage; Biden +12.6Toss-up
CA-40KerrKIMOrange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Co.-based district; Biden +1.9 Lean Rep
CA-41RollinsCALVERTCompetitive rematch in Riverside Co. district that includes Palm SpringsToss-up
CA-45TranSTEELPlurality-Asian district in Los Angeles and Orange counties; Biden +6.3Toss-up
CA-47*MinBaughOpen seat race to replace popular Dem. incumbent in coastal Orange Co.Toss-up
MT-01TranelZINKERematch in comptetitive Western MT district with R +3.4 2022 marginLean Rep
NV-03LEEJohnsonLas Vegas and Clark Co. suburbs; Biden +7Lean Dem
NV-04HORSFORDLeeNon-white urban/suburban Clark Co.; Biden +9.6Lean Dem
OR-05BynumCHAVEZ-DEREMERRep. freshman in Dem.-leaning district; Biden +9.2Toss-up
OR-06SALINASEricksonSalem-based district comprised of fast-growing, Dem.-leaning areasLean Dem
WA-03GLUESENKAMP PEREZKentRematch in district with D +0.8 2022 margin; Trump +4.4Toss-up
WA-08SCHRIERGoersCompetitive exurban district; trended Dem. in recent electionsLean Dem