The Aug. 7 special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District—pitting Democrat Danny O’Connor against Republican Troy Balderson—will be closely watched. It is another chance to see if the Democrats can overperform in yet another special election, which at this point looks extremely likely. A Monmouth poll this week shows that ...

A Democratic wave in 2018 will depend on results from California, which boasts seven competitive congressional contests. In 2016, Democrats failed to gain any seats here despite Hillary Clinton’s more than 30-point victory margin. There are several districts that make for promising Democratic opportunities this cycle, especially given a couple ...

Recent election coverage has focused substantial attention on whether or not we will see a wave election this fall. But as much as pundits love to draw conclusions from every poll, the reality is that indicators are contradictory and historically unreliable at this point in the election cycle. We’ve seen ...

From the beginning of the election cycle, it was widely assumed that the Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada were the only two likely Democratic targets this fall. But the retirement of Senator Bob Corker and the candidacy of former governor Phil Bredesen has created an opportunity for the Democrats ...

With less than six months before the election, the Democrats are benefiting from a positive political environment. Since January, six Republican state legislative seats have flipped, each with its own story but a consistent theme—Democrats are over performing. In all six contests, the winning Democrat exceeded the NCEC’s Democratic Performance ...

Conor Lamb's victory in this week's special election holds several important lessons for the upcoming general election. Again suburban voters emerged as the key voting bloc for Democrats, and the massive turnout in Allegheny County provides a fresh blueprint to follow. The NCEC provided campaign planning and analytics to the ...