A series of recently released polls shows that President Trump is losing support among independent voters, a growing segment of the population that was key to his victory in 2016. According to the 2016 US House exit polls, Trump carried Independents by 4 points (46% – 42%); other analyses give him a larger advantage. With the Republicans facing difficult contests in marginal suburban districts across the country, a significant deterioration of support among independent voters could be catastrophic to their efforts. In wave elections, the independent vote serves as a useful barometer for the depth of the change.
Looking at Previous Wave Elections
| Election | Independent Vote Share | Democrats | Republicans | Seat Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 26% | 59% | 41% | D+30 |
| 2008 | 28% | 54% | 46% | D+21 |
| 2010 | 28% | 41% | 59% | R+63 |
| 2012 | 29% | 46% | 54% | D+8 |
| 2014 | 28% | 44% | 56% | R+13 |
| 2016 | 30% | 45% | 51% | D+6 |
| 2018 | – | 50% | 35% | – |
| Sources: 2006 – 2014: CBS/NYT Exit Polls 2016: CNN National Exit Poll 2018: Quinnipiac University poll, Sept 2018 |
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As shown in the table above, a significant swing in support among independents can be a hallmark of a wave election—this is especially true in midterm elections, where Democratic turnout has generally been affected to a greater degree. With less than two months to go before election day, the most recent polls give Democrats an advantage among Independents, but it is too early to tell.