Election Day is November 8th. After a summer of encouraging news for Democrats, recent coverage is focused on whether we face a Republican takeover of Congress. In the House, the Democratic majority is just five seats. Through a combination of redistricting, retirements, and a tough economic environment, the number of districts that could determine the majority is actually much higher.
Polls Closing at 7:00 – 7:30 p.m. EST (IN, KY: One hour earlier in Eastern Time Zone; FL: One hour later in Central Time Zone)
US Senate
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL | Demings | RUBIO | Rubio +7.5 (↓) | Likely Rep |
| GA | WARNOCK | Walker | Walker +0.4 (↑) | Toss Up |
| NC* | Beasley | Budd | Budd +3.8 (↑) | Lean Rep |
| OH* | Ryan | Vance | Vance +3.9 (↑) | Lean Rep |
| VT* | Safe Dem | |||
| IN, KY, SC | Safe Rep | |||
US House
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-02 | LAWSON (FL-05 currently) | DUNN | Incumbent matchup after DeSantis dismantled a formerly Black-dominated district | Likely Rep |
| FL-13* | Lynn | Luna | Dem. inc. running for gov.; more Rep. after redistricting | Lean Rep |
| FL-15* | Cohn | Lee | New district in I-4 corridor between Orlando and Tampa; Trump +3 | Likely Rep |
| FL-23* | Moskowitz | Budd | Open seat contest in a Biden +13 district | Likely Dem |
| FL-27 | Taddeo | SALAZAR | Strong candidate in a competitive, majority-Hispanic district, has trended Rep. | Lean Rep |
| GA-02 | BISHOP | West | Rural, Black Belt district also contains Rep. areas | Likely Dem |
| IN-01 | MRVAN | Green | Working-class district trending Rep. in recent elections | Lean Dem |
| NC-01* | Davis | Smith | Open seat in a rural 40% Black district; some areas trending Rep. | Likely Dem |
| NC-06 | MANNING | Castelli | Greensboro-based district; more Rep. after redistricting | Likely Dem |
| NC-11* | Beach-Ferrara | Edwards | Open seat contest in a Trump +10 district | Likely Rep |
| NC-13* | Nickel | Hines | New district; Biden +2; highly educated electorate | Toss Up |
| NC-14* | Jackson | Harrigan | New district; Biden +16 and Charlotte-based | Likely Dem |
| OH-01 | Landsman | CHABOT | Cincinnati-based district; more competitive after redistricting | Toss Up |
| OH-09 | KAPTUR | Majewski | More Rep. after redistricting; weak Rep. candidate | Lean Dem |
| OH-13* | Sykes | Gilbert | Redistricting substantially changed this district | Toss Up |
| VA-02 | LURIA | Kiggans | Strong Rep. candidate in a Trump ’16/Biden ’20 district, anchored by Virginia Beach | Toss Up |
| VA-07 | SPANBERGER | Vega | Diverse, highly educated voters; more Dem. after redistricting; 73% of district comprised of new voters | Lean Dem |
| VA-10 | WEXTON | Cao | Affluent Dem. exurbs/suburbs in Washington DC metro area; competitive in a wave election | Likely Dem |
Polls Closing at 8:00 – 8:30 p.m. EST (MI: One hour later in Central Time Zone; KS, TX: One hour later in Mountain Time Zone)
US Senate
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NH | HASSAN | Bolduc | Hassan +3.2 (↑) | Lean Dem |
| PA* | Fetterman | Oz | Fetterman +0.4 (↓) | Toss Up |
| CT, IL, MD | Safe Dem | |||
| AL*, AR, KS, MO*, OK, OK Special* | Safe Rep | |||
US House
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CT-05 | HAYES | Logan | Two-term Dem. incumbent challenged by high Rep. spending | Lean Dem |
| IL-06 | CASTEN | Pekau | Competitive suburban district; more Dem. after redistricting | Likely Dem |
| IL-11 | FOSTER | Lauf | More competitive after redistricting; strong Dem. incumbent | Likely Dem |
| IL-13* | Budzinski | Deering | New district links academic and culturally vibrant communities | Lean Dem |
| IL-17* | Sorensen | King | Open seat contest in a renowned toss-up district | Lean Dem |
| KS-03 | DAVIDS | Adkins | Dem. pickup in 2020; more Rep. after redistricting | Lean Dem |
| MD-01 | Mizeur | HARRIS | Eastern Shore district became slightly more Dem. after redistricting; strong Dem. fundraising | Likely Rep |
| MD-06 | TRONE | Parrott | More Rep. after redistricting; strong Dem. fundraising | Likely Dem |
| ME-02 | GOLDEN | Poliquin | Dem. incumbent in a district Trump won twice by substantial margins; competitive in congressional contests | Lean Dem |
| MI-03* | Scholten | Gibbs | Inc. Rep. lost primary to weak candidate; Dem. pickup opportunity | Lean Dem |
| MI-07 | SLOTKIN (MI-08 currently) | Barrett | Suburban district; tailor made battleground | Toss Up |
| MI-08 | KILDEE (MI-05 currently) | Junge | Redistricting substantially changed this district; Biden +2 | Lean Dem |
| MI-10* | Marlinga | James | Open seat contest in a Trump +2 district | Lean Rep |
| NH-01 | PAPPAS | Leavitt | Strong Dem. incumbent; always a toss-up district; Rep. candidate is former Trump staffer and election denier | Lean Dem |
| NH-02 | KUSTER | Burns | Strong Dem. incumbent; always a toss-up district | Likely Dem |
| NJ-02 | Alexander | VAN DREW | Former Dem. pickup where inc. changed parties | Likely Rep |
| NJ-03 | KIM | Healey | More Dem. after redistricting but remains competitive in a wave; Biden +14 | Likely Dem |
| NJ-07 | MALINOWSKI | Kean | Affluent swing district won by Trump in 2016; more Rep. after redistricting | Toss Up |
| PA-01 | Ehasz | FITZPATRICK | Suburban district; tailor made battleground | Likely Rep |
| PA-07 | WILD | Scheller | Competitive Lehigh Valley district; more Rep. after redistricting | Toss Up |
| PA-08 | CARTWRIGHT | Bognet | Dem. incumbent in district Trump won twice; area trending Rep. | Toss Up |
| PA-10 | Daniels | PERRY | Trump +5 district; less competitive in congressional contests | Likely Rep |
| PA-17* | Deluzio | Shaffer | Open seat contest in west PA suburbs; always a toss-up district | Lean Dem |
| RI-02* | Magaziner | Fung | Long time Dem. incumbent retiring; strong Rep. candidate | Toss Up |
| TX-15* | Vallejo | De la Cruz | Open seat contest; majority-Latino district in region trending Rep. | Likely Rep |
| TX-28 | CUELLAR | Garcia | Scandal plagued incumbent in Latino region trending Rep. | Toss Up |
| TX-34 | GONZALEZ (TX-15 currently) | FLORES | Rep. pickup in special election; Dem. district in Latino region trending Rep. | Toss Up |
Polls Closing at 9:00 p.m. EST (ND, SD: One hour earlier in Central Time Zone)
US Senate
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | KELLY | Masters | Kelly +1.0 (-) | Lean Dem |
| CO | BENNET | O’Dea | Bennet +5.3 (↓) | Likely Dem |
| IA | Franken | GRASSLEY | Grassley +9.6 (↑) | Likely Rep |
| WI | Barnes | JOHNSON | Johnson +2.8 (↓) | Lean Rep |
| NY | Safe Dem | |||
| LA, ND, SD | Safe Rep | |||
US House
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Hodge | SCHWEIKERT | District combines affluent suburbs and rural areas; Biden +2 | Toss Up |
| AZ-02 | O’HALLERAN | Crane | More Rep. after redistricting; Dem. inc. in a district Trump won twice | Lean Rep |
| AZ-04 | STANTON | Cooper | More Rep. after redistricting; Biden +10; competitive in a wave election | Likely Dem |
| AZ-06* | Engel | Ciscomani | Open seat contest in a suburban district; tailor made battleground | Lean Rep |
| CO-03 | Frisch | BOEBERT | Controversial Rep. incumbent in a district that became more Republican after redistricting | Likely Rep |
| CO-07* | Pettersen | Aadland | Long time Dem. incumbent retiring; more Rep. after redistricting; highly educated, suburban Denver district | Lean Dem |
| CO-08* | Caraveo | Kirkmeyer | New Trump ’16/Biden ’20 suburban district; approx. 30% Latino | Toss Up |
| IA-01 | Bohannan | MILLER MEEKS | Competitive but trending Rep. in recent elections | Lean Rep |
| IA-02 | Mathis | HINSON | Competitive but trending Rep. in recent elections | Lean Rep |
| IA-03 | AXNE | Nunn | District Trump narrowly won twice; remains competitive after redistricting | Toss Up |
| MN-01 | Ettinger | FINSTAD | Rep. underperformed in recent special election; Obama ’12/Trump ’16 district | Likely Rep |
| MN-02 | CRAIG | Kistner | Trump ’16/Biden ’20 district; remains competitive after redistricting | Lean Dem |
| MN-08 | Schultz | STAUBER | Formerly competitive district trending Rep. | Likely Rep |
| NE-01 | Pansing Brooks | FLOOD | Rep. first lady endorsed Dem. candidate; Trump +12 | Likely Rep |
| NE-02 | Vargas | BACON | Strong Dem. fundraising; Rep. incumbent in a Trump’16 /Biden ’20 district | Toss Up |
| NM-01 | STANSBURY | Garcia Holmes | Albuquerque-based district; slightly more Rep. after redistricting | Likely Dem |
| NM-02 | Vasquez | HERRELL | Trump-to-Biden swing of +9 pts after redistricting; possible Dem. pickup | Toss Up |
| NM-03 | LEGER FERNANDEZ | Martinez Johnson | More Rep. after redistricting; competitive in a wave election | Likely Dem |
| NY-01* | Fleming | LaLota | Marginal Rep. inc. running for gov.; more Dem. after redistricting | Lean Rep |
| NY-02 | Gordon | GARBARINO | Competitive Long Island district; more Dem. after redistricting | Lean Rep |
| NY-03* | Zimmerman | Santos | Open seat contest in a Biden +8 district; competitive in a wave election | Lean Dem |
| NY-04* | Gillen | D’Esposito | Open seat contest in a Biden +14 district; competitive in a wave election | Lean Dem |
| NY-11 | Rose | MALLIOTAKIS | Staten Island-based; rematch former Dem. inc. and current Rep. inc. | Likely Rep |
| NY-17* | MALONEY (NY-18 currently) | Lawler | Dem. inc. moving districts; Biden +10 | Lean Dem |
| NY-18* | RYAN (NY-19 currently) | Schmitt | Dem. inc. moving districts; more Dem. after redistricting | Lean Dem |
| NY-19* | Riley | Molinaro | Open seat contest in a Trump ’16/Biden ’20 district | Toss Up |
| NY-22* | Conole | Williams | Open seat contest in a competitive Upstate district | Toss Up |
| NY-25 | MORELLE | Singletary | Biden +20 but more competitive in recent elections | Likely Dem |
| WI-01 | Roe | STEIL | Competitive suburban district; more Dem. after redistricting | Likely Rep |
| WI-03* | Pfaff | Van Orden | Dem. incumbent retiring; Trump +5 | Lean Rep |
Polls Closing at 10:00 – 11:00 p.m. EST; Mail-in/Other
US Senate
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NV | CORTEZ MASTO | Laxalt | Laxalt +2.4 (↑) | Toss Up |
| WA | MURRAY | Smiley | Murray +6.1 (↓) | Likely Dem |
| CA, HI, OR | Safe Dem | |||
| AK, ID, UT | Safe Rep | |||
US House
| State/District | Democrat | Republican | Poll Avg.†/Contest Info. | NCEC Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-01 | PELTOLA | Palin/Begich | Dem. pickup in special election; competitive due to introduction of ranked choice voting | Lean Dem |
| CA-03* | Jones | Kiley | Redistricting substantially changed this district; Trump +2 | Likely Rep |
| CA-09* | HARDER (CA-13 currently) | Patti | Strong Dem. fundraising; Biden +12 | Lean Dem |
| CA-13* | Gray | Duarte | New majority-Latino district in Central Valley; Biden +10 | Toss Up |
| CA-22 | Salas | VALADAO | Much more Dem. after redistricting; a Dem. pickup opportunity | Toss Up |
| CA-27 | Smith | GARCIA | Strong Dem. candidate; Latino vote could determine outcome | Toss Up |
| CA-40 | Mahmood | KIM | More Rep. after redistricting; from Biden +10 to Biden +2 | Likely Rep |
| CA-41 | Rollins | CALVERT | Strong Rep. incumbent; more Dem. after redistricting | Likely Rep |
| CA-45 | Chen | STEEL | Asian-plurality district (mostly Vietnamese); Clinton +14 to Biden +6 | Toss Up |
| CA-47 | PORTER | Baugh | Redistricting substantially changed this district; adds more Dem. base | Lean Dem |
| CA-49 | LEVIN | Maryott | Orange/San Diego County district remains competitive after redistricting; both sides spending profusely | Lean Dem |
| MT-01* | Tranel | Zinke | New district in western MT; Trump +8 | Likely Rep |
| NV-01 | TITUS | Robertson | Las Vegas-based district; more competitive after redistricting | Lean Dem |
| NV-03 | LEE | Becker | Las Vegas and Clark Co. suburbs; more Dem. after redistricting | Toss Up |
| NV-04 | HORSFORD | Peters | Non-white majority in urban/suburban Clark Co.; more Dem. after redistricting | Lean Dem |
| OR-04* | Hoyle | Skarlatos | Open seat; more Dem. after redistricting but remains competitive | Lean Dem |
| OR-05* | McLeod-Skinner | Chavez-DeRemer | Longtime Dem. incumbent defeated in primary; tough electoral environment in a competitive district | Toss Up |
| OR-06* | Salinas | Erickson | New district in growing areas that may trend Dem. over time | Toss Up |
| WA-03* | Gluesenkamp Perez | Kent | Rep. inc. lost primary to far-right challenger; Trump +5 district | Lean Rep |
| WA-08 | SCHRIER | Larkin | Competitive exurban district; trended Dem. in last two elections | Toss Up |