All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. The cratering of support for Donald Trump among white college-educated women and, to some extent, men with college degrees, could hamper GOP efforts in a number of districts. National political trends suggest that the 30-seat gain needed to recapture the House is not beyond reach.

Minimizing Democratic Loses

In order for a majority to materialize, the Democrats must minimize their losses to virtually none. Apart from the near certain loss of Florida’s 2nd District—due to an otherwise favorable court-ordered redistricting plan—this seems at least possible. The 2006 election provides a blueprint—when the Democrats gained 30 House seats without relinquishing a single one. Nevertheless, a repeat of this performance is unlikely.

Several districts present a challenge to Democrats in 2016. Open seats in Arizona’s 1st, Florida’s 18th, and New York’s 3rd District, have put them in a defensive posture. Additionally, some rural districts may also be trouble spots, including Minnesota’s 8th or Nebraska’s 2nd District.

Favorable Redistricting Decisions

Assuming Democrats can limit losses to just two seats, they would have to capture at least 32 GOP-held districts. We stated before (link) that the Democrats are virtually guaranteed to capture three Republican-held seats—Florida’s 10th and 13th Districts, as well as Virginia’s 4th—owing to favorable redistricting-related court decisions.

Republicans in Majority Democratic Districts

If the advantage holds in those three districts, Democrats will need 29 more to capture the House. Closing the gap begins with the majority-Democratic districts that the Republicans won in the 2014 landslide. Among them are eight Republican freshmen in districts Hillary Clinton will likely carry in November. Each district features elements increasingly favorable to Democrats, such as a mix of suburban and Latino voters, with an assist from presidential-year turnout levels. Converting each of these to the Democratic column leaves the party 21 seats short of a majority.

First-Tier Open Seats

As covered in previous posts, Democrats must exploit the open seats vacated by Republican incumbents in marginal districts.

The best possibilities exist in Minnesota’s 2nd (Twin Cities exurbs) and Pennsylvania’s 8th (suburban Philadelphia) District, where the district totals for Obama and Romney were the closest in the country in 2012. A third strong open-seat prospect is Nevada’s 3rd District, based in Las Vegas and currently held by Republican US Senate candidate Joe Heck. New York’s 22nd District also appears to be highly competitive, as retiring Republican Congressman Richard Hanna recently endorsed Hillary Clinton. The endorsement, combined with Clinton’s likely success in the district, could deliver the seat. Democratic victories in at least three of these contests, leaving 18 shy of a majority.

Second-Tier Open Seats

The results from more challenging open-seat contests in these Republican-leaning districts will determine how much momentum is carrying Democrats toward a 30-seat gain. This list is more extensive but less promising in terms of prospective victories. These districts are comprised to a larger extent of white working-class voters, with whom Hillary Clinton has had a hard time connecting.

Should one or two districts in this group change hands, there may be enough repudiation of Donald Trump among suburban voters to propel Democrats to within striking distance of a 30-seat gain.

Vulnerable Republican Incumbents

Here is the pivotal list of districts that will make, break, or come tantalizingly close to fulfilling Democratic aspirations.

Majority-Minority Districts

Winning most of the above races—a growing possibility—still leaves Democrats a few seats short. As in the presidential election, minority turnout will be a huge indicator of Democratic success. Should Donald Trump’s unpopularity among non-white voters persist, leading to an elevated turnout among this cohort, we could see additional Republican losses in majority-minority districts that are currently under the radar. California will serve as a bellwether, as there are several majority non-white districts where this could play out. Also watch the changing voting behavior of young Cuban-Americans in Florida.

Other potential Republican districts in play:

Retaking the House remains a difficult task. If any significant reversal of fortune emerges for the Trump campaign, the likelihood of a 12 to 15 seat pickup will return. With less than 100 days until Election Day, the possibility of a Democratic wave is growing.