A New Democratic Senate Majority Could be Short-Lived

Democrats are poised to regain control of the US Senate in 2016. The ongoing implosion of the Trump presidential campaign has complicated the reelection prospects of several Republicans, especially those in Democratic leaning states. But maintaining control in 2018 and beyond will be increasingly difficult. [Read More]

Yes, the House is in Play

All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. National political trends suggest that the 30-seat gain needed to recapture the House is not beyond reach. [Read More]

Citizen Involvement Reduces the Impact of Gerrymandering

Few voters are keenly aware of the complexities of redrawing district lines every ten years. But when redistricting enters the political conversation, there is widespread agreement that a less partisan element should be introduced into the process. One solution has been to establish commissions that include representatives of both parties, as well as unaffiliated members. Many voters believe that these changes will help address the negative impacts of gerrymandering. [Read More]

Why the Numbers Show Trump's Path to Victory is Unlikely

Democrats have won four of the last six presidential elections. Additionally, the Democratic nominee won the popular vote by 0.6 percentage points in 2000. That majority was not enough, however, to prevent the first election of Republican George W. Bush, who secured 271 of 538 electoral votes. From 2000 to 2012, the average Democratic margin was a narrow 2.3 percentage points, although that average increased to 5.6 percentage points for both of President Obama's victories. [Read More]

Gerrymandering Widens Gap Between Popular Vote and Control of Congress

Gerrymandering is an oft-cited reason for voter dissatisfaction and the lack of competitive congressional elections. There is validity to this complaint, as the disparity between the national popular vote for congressional candidates and the resulting seat distribution has become historically large due to redistricting. Simply stated, those who are elected to Congress are increasingly less reflective of the national popular vote. Below, we delve into the numbers from the past 20 years, which expressly show the increasing impact of gerrymandering on our elections. [Read More]

House Prospects Wane as Trump Consolidates Support

The question that will define the 2016 congressional election remains unchanged: Will it be a traditional election, where partisans of both parties overwhelmingly support the nominated presidential candidate (leading to moderate Democratic gains), or will defections and turnout aberrations create an environment for a Democratic wave? [Read More]

The Roadmap to a New Democratic House Majority

Earlier this year, the NCEC went on the record with an initial projection of a Democratic pickup of 12 to 15 seats this November. With more than six months left before the election, this remains the most likely outcome and many analysts are wondering what a Democratic wave would look like. Below, we discuss some of the factors that could lead to such a wave and look at the districts that could be won in such a scenario. [Read More]