Democrats Likely on Defense in 2018 Senate Race

Earlier this month, Mitch McConnell radically changed United States Senate rules to force through Donald Trump's right-wing Supreme Court nominee. Invoking the so-called "nuclear option" will fundamentally alter how the Senate works in the future, and makes regaining control of the US Senate more important than ever for Democrats. In 2018, they will be defending 23 seats, compared to... [Read More]

Why Georgia's 6th District Really Matters

The eyes of the political world are fixated on Tuesday's special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District. Many have pointed to Hillary Clinton's performance in the district last November as proof that this is now a... [Read More]

Expect Democratic Gains in 2018—But Where?

It's understandable if many Democrats look at the election in 2018 with a degree of foreboding. In the last two midterm elections, they lost a combined total of 76 House seats and 15 Senate seats. But the emerging scandals in the Trump White House and a simple look at history should give them a reason to be optimistic. As Barack Obama witnessed in 2010, the first midterm election commonly brings early losses to a new president's party. If President Trump's early missteps are an indicator of things to come, the Republican Party could be extremely vulnerable when voters go to the polls in 2018. [Read More]

In 2016, Data Fundamentals Proved Accurate

The NCEC's Democratic Performance Index is a granular, moving average of actual candidate performance. It should be no surprise that, on average, observed party performance correlates with future party performance more strongly than any other single measure... [Read More]