Expect Democratic Gains in 2018—But Where?

It's understandable if many Democrats look at the election in 2018 with a degree of foreboding. In the last two midterm elections, they lost a combined total of 76 House seats and 15 Senate seats. But the emerging scandals in the Trump White House and a simple look at history should give them a reason to be optimistic. As Barack Obama witnessed in 2010, the first midterm election commonly brings early losses to a new president's party. If President Trump's early missteps are an indicator of things to come, the Republican Party could be extremely vulnerable when voters go to the polls in 2018. [Read More]

In 2016, Data Fundamentals Proved Accurate

The NCEC's Democratic Performance Index is a granular, moving average of actual candidate performance. It should be no surprise that, on average, observed party performance correlates with future party performance more strongly than any other single measure... [Read More]

No, It's Not the Data That's Wrong

Along with many political analysts, we're still taking stock of what happened in the 2016 election and the implications of the outcome for the future. Some observers have suggested that campaigns should give less consideration to data and metrics going forward. We would caution against this conclusion. In many cases, existing metrics like the NCEC's Democratic Performance Index (DPI) accurately depicted the competitive nature of marginal congressional seats. However, the impact of Donald Trump's candidacy had little precedent and proved... [Read More]

Gerrymandering Increasingly Defies the Will of Voters

Gerrymandering is an oft-cited reason for voter dissatisfaction and the lack of competitive congressional elections. There is validity to this complaint, as the disparity between the national popular vote for congressional candidates and the resulting seat distribution has become historically large due to redistricting... [Read More]

2016 Election Could Demonstrate Big Changes in Future Electorate

Hillary Clinton has the won the popular vote by a larger margin than Al Gore in the 2000 election. When all votes are tallied, her margin of victory is likely to exceed 1.5 million. Still, she lost the electoral college, and hopefully put to rest the persistent notion that changing demographics among the electorate have afforded the... [Read More]

Hillary Clinton's Urban Turnout Problem

On November 15, we released an article that highlighted the Democratic Party's failure in last week's election to gain traction in rural and small-town America. The effect of which stymied the party's prospects in the House of Representatives and continued a trend that deserves more attention going forward. However, as we look into the results, it becomes clear that the Clinton campaign under-performed not only in suburban and rural counties, but also... [Read More]