The Roadmap to a New Democratic House Majority

Earlier this year, the NCEC went on the record with an initial projection of a Democratic pickup of 12 to 15 seats this November. With more than six months left before the election, this remains the most likely outcome and many analysts are wondering what a Democratic wave would look like. Below, we discuss some of the factors that could lead to such a wave and look at the districts that could be won in such a scenario. [Read More]

Lessons From 2006 and the State of Democratic Candidate Recruitment

The possibility of a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives has become a hot topic of discourse recently, particularly due to the down-ballot implications of a Donald Trump nomination for president. We covered the impact of a Trump nomination in a previous article. Of course, Donald Trump is not the only factor that could lead to a majority-producing Democratic wave in the House. [Read More]

Trump Nomination Puts Suburban House Districts in Play

As Trump has won additional contests in every region of the country, many commentators have openly wondered what impact (whether good or bad) a Trump candidacy will have on the Republican ticket down ballot. When digging into the results of his recent victories, it becomes clear that a Trump candidacy could be a disaster for several Republicans currently in marginal districts. [Read More]

November Forecast Improving for House Democrats

While the public's attention remains fixated on the presidential primary, the congressional race continues to clarify. More than a year ago, the NCEC projected that Democratic gains in the U.S. House are likely to exceed 20 seats. Our projection remains that the House Democrats can expect a solid 12 – 15 seat gain and the potential for a 20-seat or more Democratic gain remains plausible. Republican retirements, along with the elevated turnout of a presidential election, are both factors that favor the Democrats as the election approaches. [Read More]

Remembering National Director Russell Hemenway

Earlier this year, the NCEC lost its National Director Russell Hemenway. Through his work at the NCEC, Russ was an outspoken critic of the Vietnam War, earned a spot on Nixon's enemies list, and was a driving force behind campaign finance reform and the establishment of the FEC. [Read More]