Polls in Context—Is This a Wave?

Donald Trump increasingly finds himself in a precarious political position, as the scandal involving Russian collusion with his campaign creeps ever closer to the Oval Office. But the question remains, will this controversy translate into a Democratic wave? Over the next 17 months, political... [Read More]

What an Ossoff Win Looks Like

Early voting has begun in the special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District—the Democratic Party's best chance to score a symbolic victory this year. But it's important to remember that this is still a very Republican district and only a well-run, targeted campaign can overcome the natural... [Read More]

High turnout in Montana was not enough—but there is a silver lining

Last night's special election in Montana delivered on the hype, as Democrat Rob Quist ran a strong campaign coming within single digits of winning. The voter turnout on both sides was staggering for a special election, and while Quist lost, his improvement over standard Democratic Performance across the district portends great things for... [Read More]

Two Counties to Watch in Tonight's Special Election in Montana

Statewide Democratic candidates in Montana typically face an uphill battle, and tonight's special election is no exception. Despite news of assault charges against Republican Greg Gianforte, Democrat Rob Quist still has significant challenges to overcome. To win, Mr. Quist will have to replicate Senator Jon Tester's performance in key counties. [Read More]

In 2016, Data Fundamentals Proved Accurate

The NCEC's Democratic Performance Index is a granular, moving average of actual candidate performance. It should be no surprise that, on average, observed party performance correlates with future party performance more strongly than any other single measure... [Read More]