No, It's Not the Data That's Wrong

Along with many political analysts, we're still taking stock of what happened in the 2016 election and the implications of the outcome for the future. Some observers have suggested that campaigns should give less consideration to data and metrics going forward. We would caution against this conclusion. In many cases, existing metrics like the NCEC's Democratic Performance Index (DPI) accurately depicted the competitive nature of marginal congressional seats. However, the impact of Donald Trump's candidacy had little precedent and proved... [Read More]

Gerrymandering Increasingly Defies the Will of Voters

Gerrymandering is an oft-cited reason for voter dissatisfaction and the lack of competitive congressional elections. There is validity to this complaint, as the disparity between the national popular vote for congressional candidates and the resulting seat distribution has become historically large due to redistricting... [Read More]

2016 Election Could Demonstrate Big Changes in Future Electorate

Hillary Clinton has the won the popular vote by a larger margin than Al Gore in the 2000 election. When all votes are tallied, her margin of victory is likely to exceed 1.5 million. Still, she lost the electoral college, and hopefully put to rest the persistent notion that changing demographics among the electorate have afforded the... [Read More]

Hillary Clinton's Urban Turnout Problem

On November 15, we released an article that highlighted the Democratic Party's failure in last week's election to gain traction in rural and small-town America. The effect of which stymied the party's prospects in the House of Representatives and continued a trend that deserves more attention going forward. However, as we look into the results, it becomes clear that the Clinton campaign under-performed not only in suburban and rural counties, but also... [Read More]

Missed Opportunities Up and Down Ballot as Rural and Suburban Voters Buck Democrats

It will take weeks to fully digest the surprising results of last week's election. This is true at all levels of the ballot, where Democrats vastly underperformed. And not just in the presidential outcome: Democrats were held to a stunningly low two-seat pick up in US Senate races, and the mildly disappointing result in US House contests, where Democrats scored a net gain of six or seven seats--depending upon one uncalled contest in California. [Read More]

Everything Depends on the Suburbs—Watch These Counties

Suburban districts have always been regarded as the battlegrounds in American politics. As demographic trends have created more diverse suburban areas lying just outside the densely populated urban corridors, exurban areas have become more competitive. In many cases, exurbs are the new suburbs of the 21st century. As the election nears, exurban and suburban counties will have an even larger impact on the scale of the potential Democratic victory. [Read More]

Trump Down-Ballot Backlash? Watch California and New York.

California and New York are two states that will almost certainly wind up in Hillary Clinton's column on election night, but despite this certainty, these states are not without intrigue. The 2011 redistricting process—predominantly bipartisan in both states—yielded a number of competitive congressional districts. The competitive races in these states will largely determine the scale of any Democratic pickup in the House of Representatives. Several months ago, our initial analysis found that Democrats would likely achieve... [Read More]