{"id":95,"date":"2016-08-10T17:01:05","date_gmt":"2016-08-10T17:01:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp1.ncec.org\/?p=52"},"modified":"2017-10-05T17:21:22","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T21:21:22","slug":"20160810-the-house-is-in-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/20160810-the-house-is-in-play\/","title":{"rendered":"Yes, the House is in Play"},"content":{"rendered":"

All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. The cratering of support for Donald Trump among white college-educated women and, to some extent, men with college degrees, could hamper GOP efforts in a number of districts. National political trends suggest that the 30-seat gain needed to recapture the House is not beyond reach.<\/p>\n

Minimizing Democratic Loses<\/h3>\n

In order for a majority to materialize, the Democrats must minimize their losses to virtually none. Apart from the near certain loss of Florida’s 2nd District\u2014due to an otherwise favorable court-ordered redistricting plan\u2014this seems at least possible. The 2006 election provides a blueprint\u2014when the Democrats gained 30 House seats without relinquishing a single one. Nevertheless, a repeat of this performance is unlikely.<\/p>\n

Several districts present a challenge to Democrats in 2016. Open seats in Arizona’s 1st, Florida’s 18th, and New York’s 3rd District, have put them in a defensive posture. Additionally, some rural districts may also be trouble spots, including Minnesota’s 8th or Nebraska’s 2nd District.<\/p>\n

Favorable Redistricting Decisions<\/h3>\n

Assuming Democrats can limit losses to just two seats, they would have to capture at least 32 GOP-held districts. We stated before (link<\/a>) that the Democrats are virtually guaranteed to capture three Republican-held seats\u2014Florida’s 10th and 13th Districts, as well as Virginia’s 4th\u2014owing to favorable redistricting-related court decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Redistricting-Related Pickups<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VA-04<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Republicans in Majority Democratic Districts<\/h3>\n

If the advantage holds in those three districts, Democrats will need 29 more to capture the House. Closing the gap begins with the majority-Democratic districts that the Republicans won in the 2014 landslide. Among them are eight Republican freshmen in districts Hillary Clinton will likely carry in November. Each district features elements increasingly favorable to Democrats, such as a mix of suburban and Latino voters, with an assist from presidential-year turnout levels. Converting each of these to the Democratic column leaves the party 21 seats short of a majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRepublican Incumbent<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-26<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Carlos Curbelo<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

IA-01<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Rod Blum<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

IL-10<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Robert Dold<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

ME-02<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Bruce Poliquin<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

NH-01<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Frank Guinta<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

NV-04<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Cresent Hardy<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

NY-24<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

John Katko<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

TX-23<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Will Hurd<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

First-Tier Open Seats<\/h3>\n

As covered in previous posts, Democrats must exploit the open seats vacated by Republican incumbents in marginal districts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRetiring Republican<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
MN-02<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

John Kline<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

NV-03<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Joe Heck (Running for US Senate)<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

NY-22<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Richard Hanna<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

PA-08<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Mike Fitzpatrick<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The best possibilities exist in Minnesota’s 2nd (Twin Cities exurbs) and Pennsylvania’s 8th (suburban Philadelphia) District, where the district totals for Obama and Romney were the closest in the country in 2012. A third strong open-seat prospect is Nevada’s 3rd District, based in Las Vegas and currently held by Republican US Senate candidate Joe Heck. New York’s 22nd District also appears to be highly competitive, as retiring Republican Congressman Richard Hanna recently endorsed Hillary Clinton. The endorsement, combined with Clinton’s likely success in the district, could deliver the seat. Democratic victories in at least three of these contests, leaving 18 shy of a majority.<\/p>\n

Second-Tier Open Seats<\/h3>\n

The results from more challenging open-seat contests in these Republican-leaning districts will determine how much momentum is carrying Democrats toward a 30-seat gain. This list is more extensive but less promising in terms of prospective victories. These districts are comprised to a larger extent of white working-class voters, with whom Hillary Clinton has had a hard time connecting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRetiring Republican<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-06<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Ron DeSantis<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

IN-09<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Todd Young (Running for US Senate)<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

MI-01<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Dan Benishek<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

NY-19<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Chris Gibson<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

PA-16<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Joe Pitts<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

VA-05<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Robert Hurt<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n

WI-08<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Reid Ribble<\/td>\n

<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Should one or two districts in this group change hands, there may be enough repudiation of Donald Trump among suburban voters to propel Democrats to within striking distance of a 30-seat gain.<\/p>\n

Vulnerable Republican Incumbents<\/h3>\n

Here is the pivotal list of districts that will make, break, or come tantalizingly close to fulfilling Democratic aspirations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRepublican Incumbent<\/th>\nNote<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
AZ-02<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Martha McSally<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nThe top of the ticket will have a huge impact here. Rep.
\nMcSally won the closest House contest in the nation in 2014.
\nShe has since solidified her support level, but Trump could
\nundermine it.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CO-06<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Mike Coffman<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nDenver exurbs. Rep. Coffman has refused to endorse Trump.
\nPopular State Rep. Morgan Carroll is a formidable challenger
\nin a rapidly changing Arapahoe County-based district.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-07<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

John Mica<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nMarginal Orlando-based district, where the incumbent, Mica,
\nmust face a more Democratic constituency after court-ordered
\nredistricting.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IA-03<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

David Young<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nAnother 2014 winner, who owes his success to a Republican
\nwave, rather than aberrational turnout. Polls show he may
\nlose this year.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KS-03<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Kevin Yoder<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nAn upscale Kansas City-based district, with a staunchly
\nconservative incumbent in one of the most highly-educated
\ndistricts in the country.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MN-03<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Erik Paulsen<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nHighly-educated Twin Cities suburbs. Trump could lose this
\ndistrict by 15 points.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NJ-05<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Scott Garrett<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nUpscale New York City suburbs, sprinkled with emerging exurbs.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-01<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Lee Zeldin<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nThis is a 50 \u2013 50 district in Long Island, where Trump is
\npopular at present. Zeldin is another 2014 freshman, who
\ncapitalized on an ethical lapse by the former Democratic
\nincumbent.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
UT-04<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Mia Love<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nThe remarkable unpopularity of Trump may produce a shocker.
\nThis district was surprisingly close in 2014.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VA-10<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Barbara Comstock<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nRep. Comstock has refused to endorse Trump, but she may not
\nsurvive in the upscale Virginia suburbs and exurbs, where
\nTrump may have difficulty winning even 45 percent of the
\nvote.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Majority-Minority Districts<\/h3>\n

Winning most of the above races\u2014a growing possibility\u2014still leaves Democrats a few seats short. As in the presidential election, minority turnout will be a huge indicator of Democratic success. Should Donald Trump’s unpopularity among non-white voters persist, leading to an elevated turnout among this cohort, we could see additional Republican losses in majority-minority districts that are currently under the radar. California will serve as a bellwether, as there are several majority non-white districts where this could play out. Also watch the changing voting behavior of young Cuban-Americans in Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRepublican Incumbent<\/th>\nNote<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-10<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Jeff Denham<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nMore than 27 percent of the Citizen Voting Age Population
\n(CVAP) is Latino.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-21<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

David Valadao<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nPresident Obama carried this district in both 2008 (52.5
\npercent) and 2012 (55.7%), expanding on his vote share.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-25<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Steve Knight<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nThe Hispanic share of the CVAP in the 25th district has grew
\nby 3.5 percent from 2010 to 2014, and has continued to grow.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-39<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Ed Royce<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nOverall, the non-white share of the CVAP of this district is
\nover 60 percent, with a growing population of Asian
\nAmericans.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL-27<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nThe Cuban vote is paramount here.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Other potential Republican districts in play:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
District<\/th>\nRepublican Incumbent<\/th>\nNote<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CA-49<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Darrell Issa<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nSubstantial Asian American population and highly educated
\nwhite voters signal trouble for Issa. A top Democratic
\nrecruit, retired Marine Douglas Applegate also looms.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CO-03<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Scott Tipton<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nMore than 25 percent of the CVAP is non-white voters,
\nincluding a significant population of Latino voters (18%).
\nHillary Clinton should be competitive in this district.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MI-07<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Tim Walberg<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nObama carried this district in 2008, and received more than
\n48 percent in 2012. Gretchen Driskell is a solid candidate
\nwith decent fundraising, running against an incumbent that
\nis too conservative for the district.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MI-11<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Dave Trott<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nPrototype anti-Trump district. An upscale, highly educated
\npopulation. Obama carried the district in 2008, and the
\nDemocratic House candidate received more than 46 percent in
\n2012.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-02<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Peter King<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nDuWayne Gregory is a strong candidate. On paper this
\ndistrict should be competitive, 4,000 more registered
\nDemocrats than Republicans and women typically account for
\n55 percent of the vote.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NY-23<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n

Tom Reed<\/td>\n

<\/p>\n


\nJohn Plumb is a strong candidate.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Retaking the House remains a difficult task. If any significant reversal of fortune emerges for the Trump campaign, the likelihood of a 12 to 15 seat pickup will return. With less than 100 days until Election Day, the possibility of a Democratic wave is growing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All year, we have been skeptical of a return to the majority for US House Democrats, which remains the case. But there is a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel. The cratering of support for Donald Trump among white college-educated women and, to some extent, men with college degrees, could hamper GOP […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":38,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":472,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95\/revisions\/472"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}