{"id":867,"date":"2018-04-19T15:18:32","date_gmt":"2018-04-19T19:18:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/?p=867"},"modified":"2018-04-19T15:42:04","modified_gmt":"2018-04-19T19:42:04","slug":"special-election-implications-for-november","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/special-election-implications-for-november\/","title":{"rendered":"This Year\u2019s Legislative Special Elections Could Have Big Implications for November"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the media follows the dysfunction in the Trump White House, the biggest story of the year in the electoral world is the Democrats\u2019 performance in state legislative contests across the country. Since January six Republican state legislative seats have flipped, each with its own story but a consistent theme\u2014Democrats are over-performing. In all six contests the winning Democrat exceeded the NCEC\u2019s Democratic Performance Index, and outpaced Hillary Clinton\u2019s major-party percentage. More important than the statistics is that at first blush, these districts would be considered outside the \u201cgoldilocks zone.\u201d Each has geographical or educational characteristics that warrant skepticism. The question remains\u2014does this translate into a coming wave in 2018?<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/th>\nDistrict<\/th>\nDPI<\/th>\nHillary Clinton 2016 %<\/th>\n% With Bachelor’s Degree +<\/th>\nSpecial election Dem. 2018 %<\/th>\nTurnout<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CT<\/td>\nHD\u00a0120<\/td>\n50.0%<\/td>\n51.1%<\/td>\n34.3%<\/td>\n51.0%<\/td>\n3,167<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL<\/td>\nHD\u00a072<\/td>\n49.2%<\/td>\n47.5%<\/td>\n32.8%<\/td>\n53.8%<\/td>\n44,236<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KY<\/td>\nHD\u00a049<\/td>\n40.7%<\/td>\n24.3%<\/td>\n12.1%<\/td>\n68.4%<\/td>\n4,927<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MO<\/td>\nHD\u00a097<\/td>\n44.8%<\/td>\n34.8%<\/td>\n23.6%<\/td>\n51.5%<\/td>\n3,467<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NH<\/td>\nBelknap\u00a03<\/td>\n45.2%<\/td>\n43.4%<\/td>\n24.7%<\/td>\n53.5%<\/td>\n1,809<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WI<\/td>\nSD\u00a010<\/td>\n42.4%<\/td>\n40.7%<\/td>\n28.0%<\/td>\n54.6%<\/td>\n22,434<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Realistically, only two of the contests\u2014in Wisconsin and Florida\u2014produced a high enough turnout to yield confidence in the trend. But taking these districts as a group, some interesting factors are worth exploring. Much has been made of the importance of education level in determining Democratic targets, but none of these six districts had a higher education level above 34 percent\u2014near the national mean\u2014according to the most recent figures. In fact, in four of these districts the educational attainment was far below the national mean. <\/span><\/p>\n

Here is a summary of what we distill from each winning effort and implications for the November 2018 election:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/th>\nDistrict<\/th>\nSpecial election Dem. 2018 %<\/th>\n\u2026 vs. DPI<\/th>\n\u2026 vs. Hillary
\nClinton 2016 %<\/th>\n		\u2026 vs. Barack
\nObama 2012 %<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
CT<\/td>\nHD\u00a0120<\/td>\n51.0%<\/td>\n+1.0%<\/td>\n-0.1%<\/td>\n-2.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FL<\/td>\nHD\u00a072<\/td>\n53.8%<\/td>\n+4.6%<\/td>\n+6.2%<\/td>\n+4.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KY<\/td>\nHD\u00a049<\/td>\n68.4%<\/td>\n+27.7%<\/td>\n+44.1%<\/td>\n+35.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
MO<\/td>\nHD\u00a097<\/td>\n51.5%<\/td>\n+6.7%<\/td>\n+16.6%<\/td>\n+43.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NH<\/td>\nBelknap\u00a03<\/td>\n53.5%<\/td>\n+8.3%<\/td>\n+10.1%<\/td>\n+3.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WI<\/td>\nSD\u00a010<\/td>\n54.6%<\/td>\n+12.2%<\/td>\n+13.8%<\/td>\n+8.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So What Do These Contests Mean?<\/h3>\n

CONNECTICUT HOUSE 120<\/h4>\n

District Type:<\/strong> Suburban (Fairfield County)<\/p>\n

Impact:<\/strong> Contrary to the other districts, this result may portend a difficult election for Democrats in Connecticut, in part due to the unpopularity of the Malloy administration. The Connecticut General Assembly is a battleground for Democrats this year, with defense as important as offense in the November general election. This district is not as affluent or highly educated as other suburban districts, but still indicates a slightly disturbing trend in Connecticut.<\/p>\n

FLORIDA HOUSE 72<\/h4>\n

District Type:<\/strong> Suburban (Sarasota County)<\/p>\n

Impact:<\/strong> Although a marginal Democratic district, it typically tilts Republican. This result is encouraging in a state that has a high profile U.S. Senate race and several potentially competitive U. S. House races this fall. The high special election turnout makes this result more indicative of a trend.<\/p>\n

KENTUCKY HOUSE 49<\/h4>\n

District Type:<\/strong> Rural<\/p>\n

Impact:<\/strong> This victory was the result of a political scandal, and a late decision to hold a special election. The result this fall will be interesting to watch.<\/p>\n

MISSOURI HOUSE 97<\/h4>\n

District Type:<\/strong> Rural<\/p>\n

Impact:<\/strong> This result, when coupled with the three additional near misses in Missouri demonstrates that the Republican supermajority in the legislature is in jeopardy. It\u2019s also another signal that midwestern rural and small town districts may be more competitive than previously thought.<\/p>\n

NEW HAMPSHIRE HOUSE BELKNAP 3<\/h4>\n

District Type:<\/strong> Rural<\/p>\n

Impact:<\/strong> New Hampshire\u2019s House districts are small with regard to population, so the low turnout is less meaningful. This chamber typically changes hands when a moderate wave is present. The November general election should be no different.<\/p>\n

WISCONSIN SENATE 10<\/h4>\n

District Type:<\/strong> Rural<\/p>\n

Impact:<\/strong> If rural voters are returning to the Democratic fold, the Republican majority in the Wisconsin state senate is in serious jeopardy. If what we\u2019ve seen in this election extends beyond this contest, many midwestern rural districts may be competitive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the media follows the dysfunction in the Trump White House, the biggest story of the year in the electoral world is the Democrats\u2019 performance in state legislative contests across the country. Since January six Republican state legislative seats have flipped, each with its own story but a consistent theme\u2014Democrats are over-performing. In all six […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=867"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":876,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/867\/revisions\/876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}