{"id":86,"date":"2016-04-02T17:41:53","date_gmt":"2016-04-02T17:41:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp1.ncec.org\/?p=82"},"modified":"2017-10-05T17:24:51","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T21:24:51","slug":"20160402-lessons-from-2006","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/20160402-lessons-from-2006\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons From 2006 and the State of Democratic Candidate Recruitment"},"content":{"rendered":"
The possibility of a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives has become a hot topic of discourse recently, particularly due to the down-ballot implications of a Donald Trump nomination for president. We covered the impact of a Trump nomination in a previous article (see Mar. 24, 2016<\/a>). Of course, Donald Trump is not the only factor that could lead to a majority-producing Democratic wave in the House. Adequate candidate recruitment is an element with potential implications as well, a topic for which the DCCC has recently received some criticism. While some competitive districts may lack a typically-polished candidate, an analysis of the 2006 election\u2014the last time a wave materialized\u2014shows that in the right circumstances, unconventional candidates can be equally successful. Looking back at the 2006 election could assuage the current controversy.<\/p>\n In 2006, the Democrats captured 30 seats\u201415 more than needed to regain the majority\u2014for the first time since 1992. While the task is more arduous this year, regaining the same number of seats will generate a majority in 2016. Of the districts where Democrats were successful in 2006, 28 of them fell within the normal parameters of marginality, according to the NCEC’s Democratic Performance Index. Only Pennsylvania’s 19th, where the Democrat was aided by a significant Republican scandal, and Kansas’ 2nd, which was a significant surprise, were outside these typical measurements of marginality. The percentage of the total congressional vote cast for Democrats was a relatively modest 52.7 percent, a 5.8-point increase over the 2004 result, when George W. Bush was reelected.<\/p>\n In 2006, for the first time in almost a century, Democrats retained all incumbent and open seats. The only races Democrats won by less than 1 percent occurred in two Georgia districts, both of which are now held by Republicans.<\/p>\n A deeper look at the 2006 results shows that the wave could have been even larger. Beyond the districts picked up by Democrats, Republicans lost an additional 24 contests by fewer than 10 points, including five seats lost by fewer than 2 points. Indeed, the size of the Democratic wave could have been even bigger; just weeks prior to Election Day, neutral observers thought Democrats might net as many as 40 seats.<\/p>\n With respect to candidate recruitment, the 2006 election offers some interesting reminders that could guide this year’s efforts. In that election, the seats gained were evenly divided between career politicians and political novices:<\/p>\nCareer Officeholders Elected in 2006<\/h3>\n
District<\/th>\n | Candidate<\/th>\n | Former Position<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AZ-05<\/td>\n | Harry Mitchell<\/td>\n | Mayor, former State Senator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AZ-08<\/td>\n | Gabby Giffords<\/td>\n | Former State Senator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CO-07<\/td>\n | Ed Perlmutter<\/td>\n | State Senator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CT-02<\/td>\n | Joe Courtney<\/td>\n | Former State Representative<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CT-05<\/td>\n | Chris Murphy<\/td>\n | State Senator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
FL-22<\/td>\n | Ron Kline<\/td>\n | State Senator<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IN-02<\/td>\n | Joe Donnelly<\/td>\n | Local Office Holder<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IN-08<\/td>\n | Brad Ellsworth<\/td>\n | Elected Sheriff<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
IN-09<\/td>\n | Baron Hill<\/td>\n | Former Congressman<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
KS-02<\/td>\n | Nancy Boyda<\/td>\n | Former Congressional Candidate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NH-01<\/td>\n | Carol Shea Porter<\/td>\n | Local Party Operative<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NY-19<\/td>\n | John Hall<\/td>\n | Local Office Holder<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NY-24<\/td>\n | Mike Arcuri<\/td>\n | Local District Attorney<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TX-22<\/td>\n | Nick Lampson<\/td>\n | Former Congressman<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
TX-23<\/td>\n | Ciro Rodriguez<\/td>\n | Former Congressman<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\nPolitical Novices Elected in 2006<\/h3>\n
|