{"id":85,"date":"2016-05-20T17:28:48","date_gmt":"2016-05-20T17:28:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/wp1.ncec.org\/?p=80"},"modified":"2017-10-05T17:24:02","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T21:24:02","slug":"20160520-trump-thinks-he-can-win-ohio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/20160520-trump-thinks-he-can-win-ohio\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Thinks He Can Win Ohio, He Might Be Right"},"content":{"rendered":"
The close margin in Kentucky’s May 18 Democratic primary underscores some of Hillary Clinton’s potential vulnerabilities in the general election (which we raised earlier, after the Indiana Primary).<\/p>\n
Overall, the race in Kentucky was amazingly close, especially considering how well Clinton performed in Lexington, home of the University of Kentucky. Previous contests suggested that Sanders would have an obvious advantage there.<\/p>\n
Unsurprisingly, Sanders outperformed Clinton in the coal counties, but also did well in western areas of the state less dependent on coal. As with Indiana, these results expose a real weakness for Clinton with rural and less educated white voters.<\/p>\n
The wider impact of this effect could hurt Clinton in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and possibly Michigan and Minnesota during the general election.<\/p>\n
Using the Census Bureau’s 2014 Current Population Survey, the estimated shares of Ohio’s Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) by race and Hispanic origin break down as follows:<\/p>\n
Race and Hispanic Origin<\/th>\n | CVAP Share<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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White (non-Hispanic)<\/td>\n | 84%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
African American<\/td>\n | 12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hispanic<\/td>\n | 2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Asian<\/td>\n | 1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other<\/td>\n | 1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n In the table below, we include estimates of white and black vote share from the 2012 election, when President Obama carried Ohio by 3 points.<\/p>\n
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