Recent off-year statewide elections in Virginia have often served as a reliable barometer of national voter sentiment\u2014as goes Virginia, so goes the next national election. In 2005, Democrat Tim Kaine won a close contest for Governor, signaling the beginning of the Democratic wave that characterized the 2006 and 2008 election cycles. Conversely, Republican Bob McDonnell stormed his way to victory in 2009, signaling the coming Republican wave that defined the 2010 cycle. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried the state, continuing a trend of increasing Democratic support in areas away from the traditional strongholds of Arlington and Fairfax. Many observers this year will be watching for the impact of these developments on state legislative elections. While it is almost impossible to imagine the Democrats gaining control of the Virginia House of Delegates, pick-up opportunities do exist.<\/p>\n
Big Implications for Redistricting<\/strong><\/p>\n In recent years, Virginia was the focus of pivotal redistricting litigation. Assembly Republicans violated the rights of the state\u2019s minority voters in order to create strongly Republican districts. Statewide contests remain competitive for Democrats, but Republicans piggybacked on a racial gerrymander to amass lopsided majorities in both the House of Delegates and the congressional delegation\u2014controlling two-thirds of the House of Delegates, and 7 of 11 congressional seats.<\/p>\n In 2016, Democrats scored a congressional pick-up after a Supreme Court decision to throw out portions of the Republican-drawn congressional map. A new, court-drawn plan was much more favorable to the Democrats. In December of last year, the Supreme Court heard arguments pertaining to several Richmond-area state House districts, which also may have been illegally drawn based on race.<\/p>\n Maintaining control of the Governor\u2019s mansion has huge implications in the state for the next round of redistricting. Republicans currently control both chambers of the General Assembly and if they win the Governor\u2019s office too, they would have exclusive control over the next cycle of redistricting in the state.<\/p>\n With a more bipartisan process and a fairer map, we believe that the Democrats could pick up as many as three additional congressional seats in the future.<\/p>\n Democratic Fortunes Continue to Evolve<\/strong><\/p>\n Democratic Support Grows in Northern VA<\/em><\/p>\n Election observers will agree that in recent years, an increasing population in Northern Virginia\u2019s suburban counties (Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William) changed the dynamics of the state. Over time, it has become much more hospitable to Democratic candidates in statewide contests. In 2017, these four counties account for more than 25 percent of the expected vote. And judging by Hillary Clinton\u2019s performance, this region should remain a focal point of Democratic strategy. The table below shows how Democratic margins in these four counties, alone, offset Clinton\u2019s deficit across the rest of the state.<\/p>\n These results highlight a decade-long trend, which if it continues could potentially alter the state\u2019s voting patterns permanently. In 2016, voters in Northern Virginia overwhelmingly rejected Donald Trump, pushing Hillary Clinton\u2019s margin of victory well above President Obama\u2019s margin in these key counties. Should this governor\u2019s race be a further referendum on President Trump\u2019s performance, these numbers will be especially noteworthy.<\/p>\n Northern Virginia Democratic margin in select contests, 2006 \u2013 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/tr>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/tr>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/tr>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/tr>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/tr>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n Democratic Prospects Outside Northern Virginia Steadily Improve<\/strong><\/p>\n While Northern Virginia is worthy of attention, other areas are also trending more Democratic, including suburban Richmond in Henrico County, as well as southern cities like Chesapeake and Chesterfield. These developments could have a big impact on the gubernatorial and state legislative contests this year.<\/p>\n\n\n
\n County<\/th>\n US Sen \u201906<\/th>\n Pres \u201908<\/th>\n Gov \u201909<\/th>\n Pres \u201912<\/th>\n Gov \u201913<\/th>\n Pres \u201916<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n \n Arlington<\/td>\n 33,821<\/td>\n 49,118<\/td>\n 17,624<\/td>\n 46,795<\/td>\n 33,368<\/td>\n 71,830<\/td>\n \n Fairfax<\/td>\n 64,723<\/td>\n 109,365<\/td>\n -4,466<\/td>\n 108,500<\/td>\n 67,795<\/td>\n 197,423<\/td>\n \n Loudoun<\/td>\n 1,132<\/td>\n 11,509<\/td>\n -14,566<\/td>\n 7,187<\/td>\n 3,905<\/td>\n 30,846<\/td>\n \n Prince William<\/td>\n 2,094<\/td>\n 25,814<\/td>\n -13,146<\/td>\n 28,873<\/td>\n 8,010<\/td>\n 41,423<\/td>\n \n NOVA Total<\/td>\n 101,770<\/td>\n 195,806<\/td>\n -14,554<\/td>\n 191,355<\/td>\n 113,078<\/td>\n 341,522<\/td>\n \n Statewide Total<\/td>\n 9,329<\/td>\n 234,527<\/td>\n -344,701<\/td>\n 149,298<\/td>\n 56,435<\/td>\n 212,030<\/td>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/dem_vote_share.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n