California and New York are two states that will almost certainly wind up in Hillary Clinton’s column on election night, but despite this certainty, these states are not without intrigue. The 2011 redistricting process\u2014predominantly bipartisan in both states\u2014yielded a number of competitive congressional districts. The competitive races in these states will largely determine the scale of any Democratic pickup in the House of Representatives. Several months ago, our initial analysis found that Democrats would likely achieve a net gain of 12 \u2013 15 seats nationally (with help from the elevated minority participation that accompanies a presidential year election). Given the number of competitive districts, Democrats have a chance to win as many as 10 Republican seats in these two bellwether states, alone. However, the unprecedented impact of Donald Trump’s candidacy complicates any forecast of the behavior of traditional voting coalitions. These states could just as easily produce an electoral draw.<\/p>\n
| District<\/th>\n | Margin of Victory<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n |
|---|---|
| CA-07<\/td>\n <\/p>\n | 0.8%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n |
| CA-16<\/td>\n <\/p>\n | 1.5%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n |
| CA-24<\/td>\n <\/p>\n | 3.9%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n |
| CA-31<\/td>\n <\/p>\n | 3.5%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n |
| CA-36<\/td>\n <\/p>\n | 8.4%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n |
| CA-52<\/td>\n <\/p>\n | 3.2%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n In New York, the split legislature helped ensure some equity in the redistricting process, and though the final maps were challenged in court, a number of competitive districts remain. It’s worth noting that in 2012, voters in New York approved a Constitutional Amendment creating a 10-person commission chosen largely by the legislative leaders. The commission consists of individuals who are neither legislators\/party chairs nor state employees, and is tasked to hold hearings and (by supermajority vote) draft districts. Under the amendment, districts would have to preserve minority rights, be equally populated, consist of compact and contiguous territory, and not drawn to discourage competition or to favor\/disfavor candidates or parties.<\/p>\n The Limitations of Demographics<\/h3>\nThe electorate in 2016 promises to be the most diverse in American history. We expect 27 percent of the national vote to be cast by non-white voters, but it could rise to as high as 29 percent. As we have noted in previous articles, the increasingly diverse electorate should improve Democratic congressional prospects. Recent elections support this contention\u2014in the 2008 and 2012 elections, Democrats scored a net gain of 32 seats. Conversely, Republicans netted a total of 77 seats in 2010 and 2014, when the non-white vote accounted for a lesser share of the electorate.<\/p>\n But elections are not decided by demographics alone, and elevated non-white turnout should not be taken as a given. Without sufficient investment from the Clinton campaign, California and New York in particular could lead to missed opportunities down the ballot.<\/p>\n Elevated Latino turnout in California will theoretically deliver several seats, but the scale of the increase is far from certain, and some of the vulnerable Republican incumbents remain popular. In New York, the Republican-held marginal districts fall mainly in rural areas with less minority vote and are populated by working-class white voters that have been susceptible to Donald Trump’s message. Below we will delve deeper into these marginal districts.<\/p>\n California<\/h3>\nFew Vulnerable Democrats<\/em><\/p>\n As the 2016 election approaches, prospects are improving for California’s marginal Democrats. In fact, of the five Democratic districts decided by fewer than 10 points in 2014, we expect only two (CA-07 and CA-24) to be competitive this cycle. Congressman Ami Bera of the 7th District remains the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in California. Further, recent polling has suggested that Hillary Clinton is running well in the 24th District, which should help Democratic candidate Salud Carbajal retain this open seat. Other potentially vulnerable Democrats, such as Scott Peters in the 52nd District, now appear to be safe.<\/p>\n Opportunity Depends on Turnout<\/em><\/p>\n In a favorable year, the political landscape in California could yield as many as six new Democratic house seats. Changes in the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) show a rapidly diversifying population, particularly in marginal Republican-held districts. The impact of the Trump campaign on these districts could be profound, but turning out these voters out will require effort and resources. Below we analyze the marginal districts:<\/p>\n CA-10:<\/strong> Republican incumbent Jeff Denham is facing a rematch against Democratic candidate Michael Eggman, Denham won their contest in 2014 with 56.1 percent of the vote, a margin of 15,549 votes. President Obama carried this district in 2012 with 51.8 percent of the vote, actually increasing his 2008 vote share (51.2 percent). This sharp variation underscores how important the minority vote is to Democratic prospects. In terms of CVAP, the non-white share of the electorate grew by 3.4 percent from 2010 \u2013 2014, with Hispanic voters representing 27.4 percent of the district CVAP. Since 2014 the Hispanic population has continued to grow, which should aid Eggman, but an assist from the top of the ticket is essential.<\/p>\n CA-21:<\/strong> The 21st district shares many of the same characteristics of the tenth, as the Hispanic CVAP grew by 4 percent between 2010 \u2013 2014. President Obama carried this district in both 2008 (52.5 percent) and 2012, expanding on his vote share in 2012 (55.7 percent). Despite Obama’s performance, Republican incumbent David Valadao cruised to victory in 2014, winning 57.8 percent of the vote. Valadao won in spite of the fact that Dianne Feinstein received 56.6 percent of the vote in this district at the top of the ticket that same year. As a Hispanic, Valadao might be able to garner an elevated amount of Hispanic support, but as in the tenth district elevated turnout will favor the Democrats. The Fresno County portion of this district is especially important, as President Obama carried it in 2012, compared to the House candidate in 2014, who received 41.8 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n CA-25:<\/strong> California utilizes a top-two primary system, which allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote but only moves the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, to the general election. In 2014, the race in the 25th district featured two Republicans, vying to replace longtime Republican incumbent Buck McKeon. Despite these results, this is still considered a top-tier target in 2016. The Hispanic share of the CVAP in the 25th district has grew by 3.5 percent from 2010 to 2014, and has continued to grow making this district increasingly marginal. The Los Angeles County portion of the district, which was more than 28 percent Hispanic in 2014, is absolutely crucial for Democratic candidate Bryan Caforio. The Los Angeles County portion of the district represents 79 percent of the expected vote. President Obama won 51.4 percent of the vote here in 2008 and 49.1 percent of the vote in 2012.<\/p>\n CA-39:<\/strong> The Asian population, an emerging Democratic voting bloc, represents 27.1 percent of the CVAP in this district. Overall, the non-white share of the CVAP of this district is over 60 percent creating an obvious opportunity (particularly in a presidential year). Yet, Republican incumbent Ed Royce managed to win more than 68 percent of the vote in 2014, and 57.8 percent of the vote in 2012, despite Obama’s competitiveness in the district (48.1 percent). Fiercely Republican portions and Orange County and reliably Republican segments of San Bernardino County account for 74.3 percent of the expected vote, but the remaining share of the vote comes from sections of Los Angeles County, which is more than 47 percent Asian. Watch the San Bernardino portion of the district, as Obama received more than 47 percent of the vote here in 2012, and the non-white population has grown by 3.8 percent. Candidate quality is a potential concern for the Democrats.<\/p>\n CA-49:<\/strong> Well-known Republican, Darrell Issa, has drawn a strong candidate in Attorney and Iraq War Veteran Douglas Applegate. President Obama carried this district in 2008, but his share dropped by 4 percent in 2012, due to a declining share of the vote in the San Diego County portion of the district. Overall, the non-white share of the vote has grown by 2.7 percent from 2010 \u2013 2014, but the district remains more than 68 percent white.<\/p>\n New York<\/h3>\n |