{"id":2274,"date":"2024-11-04T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/?p=2274"},"modified":"2024-11-05T18:18:29","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T23:18:29","slug":"election-night-guide-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/election-night-guide-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Election Night Guide 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"PDF<\/a><\/figure>
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Click the image to download a printable PDF<\/strong> of our Election Night Guide for the 2024 Presidential-year Election\u2014or see below.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

7:00 \u2013 7:30 PM EST (IN, KY: One hour earlier in Eastern Time Zone counties; FL: One hour later in Central Time Zone counties)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

US Senate<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
FL<\/td>Mucarsel-Powell<\/td>SCOTT<\/td>Scott +4.5<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
OH<\/td>BROWN<\/td>Moreno<\/td>Brown +1.7<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
VA, VT (I)<\/td>Safe Dem (or Ind)<\/td><\/tr>\n
IN*, WV*<\/td>Safe Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

US House<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
FL-13<\/td>Fox<\/td>LUNA<\/td>St. Petersburg district with far right freshman incumbent; 2x Trump district<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
NC-01<\/td>DAVIS<\/td>Buckhout<\/td>Long-time Dem., mostly rural, 39% Black district; some areas trending Rep.<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
OH-01<\/td>LANDSMAN<\/td>Sonza<\/td>Cincinatti-based competitive district; Biden +8.6<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
OH-09<\/td>KAPTUR<\/td>Merrin<\/td>Long-time Dem. rep. in Toledo-based, 2x Trump district<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
OH-13<\/td>SYKES<\/td>Coughlin<\/td>Akron and Canton-based district; D +5.4 margin in 2022<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
VA-02<\/td>Cotter Smasal<\/td>KIGGANS<\/td>Rep. freshman in a Trump\/Biden Virginia Beach-based district; Biden +1.8<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
VA-07*<\/td>Vindman<\/td>Anderson<\/td>Open seat district with diverse, highly educated voters<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

8:00 \u2013 8:30 PM EST (MI: One hour later in Central Time Zone counties; KS, TX: One hour later in Mountain Time Zone counties)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

US Senate<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
MD*<\/td>Alsobrooks<\/td>Hogan<\/td>Alsobrooks +11.3<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
MI*<\/td>Slotkin<\/td>Rogers<\/td>Slotkin +3.9<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
PA<\/td>CASEY<\/td>McCormick<\/td>Casey + 2.8<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
TX<\/td>Allred<\/td>CRUZ<\/td>Cruz +3.3<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
CT, DE, MA, ME (I), NJ, RI<\/td>Safe Dem (or Ind)<\/td><\/tr>\n
MO, MS, ND, TN<\/td>Safe Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

US House<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
CT-05<\/td>HAYES<\/td>Logan<\/td>Rematch in district with D +0.8 2022 margin; Biden 55.5% in 2020<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
IL-17<\/td>SORENSEN<\/td>McGraw<\/td>Dems protecting renowned toss-up district; includes Rockford and Peoria<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
MD-06*<\/td>McClain-Delaney<\/td>Parrott<\/td>Long-time Dem. district; includes pt. Montgomery, all Frederick and Panhandle<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
ME-02<\/td>GOLDEN<\/td>Theriault<\/td>Rural Maine; highly competitive in congressional contests; 2x Trump district<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
MI-03<\/td>SCHOLTEN<\/td>Hudson<\/td>Freshman rep. defending 2022 Dem. pickup won with 13.4% margin<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
MI-07*<\/td>Hertel<\/td>Barrett<\/td>Open seat in suburban, tailor made battleground<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
MI-08*<\/td>McDonald Rivet<\/td>Junge<\/td>Open seat in competitive, long-time Dem. district<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
MI-10<\/td>Marlinga<\/td>JAMES<\/td>Rep. freshman in third closest 2022 US House district, decided by 1,601 votes<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
NJ-07<\/td>Altman<\/td>KEAN, JR.<\/td>Highly educated district; Biden +3.8<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
PA-01<\/td>Ehasz<\/td>FITZPATRICK<\/td>Long-targeted Rep. incumbent in Biden +4.8 district<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
PA-07<\/td>WILD<\/td>MacKenzie<\/td>Competitive Lehigh Valley district; Biden +0.6. Large Puerto Rican Population<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
PA-08<\/td>CARTWRIGHT<\/td>Bresnahan<\/td>Dem. incumbent in 2x Trump district; area trending Rep.; Trump +3<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
PA-10<\/td>Stelson<\/td>PERRY<\/td>Long-targeted Rep. incumbent opposed certification of 2020 election result<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
PA-17<\/td>DELUZIO<\/td>Mercuri<\/td>West PA suburban battleground<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
TX-15<\/td>Vallejo<\/td>DE LA CRUZ<\/td>Latino majority district in region trending Rep.<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
TX-28<\/td>CUELLAR<\/td>Furman<\/td>Scandal plagued incumbent in Latino region trending Rep.<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
TX-34<\/td>GONZALEZ<\/td>Flores<\/td>Latino majority district in region trending Rep.<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

9:00 PM EST (ND, SD: One hour earlier in Central Time Zone counties)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

US Senate<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
AZ*<\/td>Gallego<\/td>Lake<\/td>Gallego +5.0<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
NE<\/td>Osborn (I)<\/td>FISCHER<\/td>Fischer +2.4<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
WI<\/td>BALDWIN<\/td>Hovde<\/td>Baldwin +2.3<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
MN, NM, NY<\/td>Safe Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
WY<\/td>Safe Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

US House<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
AZ-01<\/td>Shah<\/td>SCHWEIKERT<\/td>Suburban, highly educated Phoenix\/Scottsdale district; Biden +1.4<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
AZ-02<\/td>Nez<\/td>CRANE<\/td>Formerly Dem. held; 2x Trump district<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
AZ-06<\/td>Engel<\/td>CISCOMANI<\/td>Rematch in district with R +1.4 2022 margin; Biden +0.2<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CO-03*<\/td>Frisch<\/td>Hurd<\/td>Frisch lost by 546 votes to Lauren Boebert in ’22; Boebert now in CO-04; Trump +19<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
CO-08<\/td>CARAVEO<\/td>Evans<\/td>Dem. freshman in Trump\/Biden suburban district; approx. 30% Latino<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
IA-01<\/td>Bohannan<\/td>MILLER-MEEKS<\/td>Competitive in recent elections; Miller-Meeks won by 6 votes in 2020<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
IA-03<\/td>Baccam<\/td>NUNN<\/td>Des Moines urban & suburban areas; 2022 race decided by 2,144 votes<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
NE-02<\/td>Vargas<\/td>BACON<\/td>Rep. incumbent in highly targeted Omaha Trump\/Biden district; Biden +6.4<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
NM-02<\/td>VASQUEZ<\/td>Herrell<\/td>Dem. pickup in 2022; remains competitive. Biden +6; 56.1% Latino<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
NY-01<\/td>Avlon<\/td>LALOTA<\/td>Suffolk Co.-based district; perennial Dem. target<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
NY-04<\/td>Gillen<\/td>D’ESPOSITO<\/td>Rep. freshman in long-time Dem. district; Biden +14.3<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
NY-17<\/td>Jones<\/td>LAWLER<\/td>Rep. freshman in Westchester and Rockland-based district; Biden +10.1<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
NY-18<\/td>RYAN<\/td>Esposito<\/td>Competitive district in Dutchess, Orange, Ulster counties; D +1.2 2022 margin<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
NY-19<\/td>Riley<\/td>MOLINARO<\/td>Competitive rematch in Upstate NY; Biden +4.6<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
NY-22<\/td>Mannion<\/td>WILLIAMS<\/td>District in Syracuse and Utica is best Dem. pickup oppportunity; Biden +11.6<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
WI-01<\/td>Barca<\/td>STEIL<\/td>Strong Dem. candidate in historically Rep., Southeast WI district<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
WI-03<\/td>Cooke<\/td>VAN ORDEN<\/td>Rep. pickup in 2022 with 3.8% margin; remains competitive<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

10:00 \u2013 11:00 PM EST; Mail-in\/Other<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

US Senate<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 Senate Democrats, along with four Independents hold a 51-49 majority.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
MT<\/td>TESTER<\/td>Sheehy<\/td>Sheehy +5.4<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
NV<\/td>ROSEN<\/td>Brown<\/td>Rosen +6.1<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA*, WA, HI<\/td>Safe Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
UT*<\/td>Safe Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n

US House<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
* Indicates no incumbent in contest.
\u2020 House Republicans have a 3 seat majority, 221 to Democrats’ 214.
CAPS indicates incumbent.<\/caption>\n
State\/District<\/th>\nDemocrat<\/th>\nRepublican<\/th>\nPoll Avg.\u2020\/Contest Info.<\/th>\nNCEC Rating<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
AK-01<\/td>PELTOLA<\/td>Begich III<\/td>Freshman rep. in a Republican-leaning state\/district; Trump +10.6<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-03<\/td>Morse<\/td>KILEY<\/td>Formerly Dem. district; based in Placer Co. and runs along Nevada border<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-13<\/td>Gray<\/td>DUARTE<\/td>San Joaquin Valley rematch decided by 546 votes in 2022; Biden +10.6<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-22<\/td>Salas<\/td>VALADAO<\/td>San Joaquin Valley rematch decided by 3.0% in 2022; 69.3% Latino & Biden +12.6<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-27<\/td>Whitesides<\/td>GARCIA<\/td>North Los Angeles Co. district with Dem. registration advantage; Biden +12.6<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-40<\/td>Kerr<\/td>KIM<\/td>Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Co.-based district; Biden +1.9 <\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-41<\/td>Rollins<\/td>CALVERT<\/td>Competitive rematch in Riverside Co. district that includes Palm Springs<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-45<\/td>Tran<\/td>STEEL<\/td>Plurality-Asian district in Los Angeles and Orange counties; Biden +6.3<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
CA-47*<\/td>Min<\/td>Baugh<\/td>Open seat race to replace popular Dem. incumbent in coastal Orange Co.<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
MT-01<\/td>Tranel<\/td>ZINKE<\/td>Rematch in comptetitive Western MT district with R +3.4 2022 margin<\/td>Lean Rep<\/td><\/tr>\n
NV-03<\/td>LEE<\/td>Johnson<\/td>Las Vegas and Clark Co. suburbs; Biden +7<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
NV-04<\/td>HORSFORD<\/td>Lee<\/td>Non-white urban\/suburban Clark Co.; Biden +9.6<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
OR-05<\/td>Bynum<\/td>CHAVEZ-DEREMER<\/td>Rep. freshman in Dem.-leaning district; Biden +9.2<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
OR-06<\/td>SALINAS<\/td>Erickson<\/td>Salem-based district comprised of fast-growing, Dem.-leaning areas<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n
WA-03<\/td>GLUESENKAMP PEREZ<\/td>Kent<\/td>Rematch in district with D +0.8 2022 margin; Trump +4.4<\/td>Toss-up<\/td><\/tr>\n
WA-08<\/td>SCHRIER<\/td>Goers<\/td>Competitive exurban district; trended Dem. in recent elections<\/td>Lean Dem<\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Download a printable PDF or view our 2024 Election Night Guide online.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":2306,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2274"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2274"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2274\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2331,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2274\/revisions\/2331"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2306"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}