{"id":1480,"date":"2020-06-23T17:48:41","date_gmt":"2020-06-23T21:48:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/?p=1480"},"modified":"2020-06-24T15:32:09","modified_gmt":"2020-06-24T19:32:09","slug":"biden-surge-trump-failure-expand-electoral-map","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/biden-surge-trump-failure-expand-electoral-map\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden Surge and Trump Failures Expand Electoral Map"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The November 2020 general election is fast approaching, and Democrats now have a clear lead in 18 states. This tranche provides the presumptive nominee Joe Biden with a base of 212 electoral votes\u201458 short of the required 270. Four more states\u2014Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire\u2014with 36 electoral votes are also leaning in favor of the former Vice President. A potential haul of 248 electoral votes means the Democrats only need 22 more to clinch a victory. There are several plausible ways to overcome this deficit, and the NCEC predicts that Biden can finish with at least 296 electoral votes and has a possible cap of 415 electoral votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1002\" height=\"751\" src=\"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/biden_base_evotes_20200622b_with_bar-for-web.png\" alt=\"Map of the US showing states that support Joe Biden, and their electoral vote totals.\" class=\"wp-image-1498\" srcset=\"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/biden_base_evotes_20200622b_with_bar-for-web.png 1002w, http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/biden_base_evotes_20200622b_with_bar-for-web-300x225.png 300w, http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/biden_base_evotes_20200622b_with_bar-for-web-768x576.png 768w, http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/12\/biden_base_evotes_20200622b_with_bar-for-web-400x300.png 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1002px) 100vw, 1002px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Some combination of these 87 toss-up electoral votes, combined with the base described above, can yield the required 270 or more:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table aligncenter\"><table class=\"\"><tbody><tr style=\"background-color:#eeeeee\"><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">State<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Electoral Votes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arizona<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">11<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Florida<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">29<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>North Carolina<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">15<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pennsylvania<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">20<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wisconsin<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">10<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maine 2nd Cong. Dist.<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nebraska 2nd Cong. Dist.<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3>Additional Notes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Polls now show Joe Biden leading in every one of these states, with the possible exception of Wisconsin.<\/li><li>Biden leads in all Pennsylvania polling, meaning it is on the cusp of a Lean Democratic rating.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3>Winning Scenarios<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Adding Florida alone lifts Biden to 277 electoral votes.<\/li><li>Pennsylvania, Nebraska&#8217;s 2<sup>nd<\/sup> Congressional District, and Maine&#8217;s 2<sup>nd<\/sup> Congressional District add up to exactly 270 electoral votes.<\/li><li>Winning Pennsylvania and any one of the other four states gives Biden between 278 and 297 electoral votes, clearly exceeding the total necessary to win.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The November 2020 general election is fast approaching, and Democrats now have a clear lead in 18 states. This tranche provides the presumptive nominee Joe Biden with a base of 212 electoral votes\u201458 short of the required 270. Four more states\u2014Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire\u2014with 36 electoral votes are also leaning in favor of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":1498,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1480"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1480"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1480\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1503,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1480\/revisions\/1503"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1498"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}