{"id":1220,"date":"2018-09-12T14:38:02","date_gmt":"2018-09-12T18:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/?p=1220"},"modified":"2018-09-12T14:51:44","modified_gmt":"2018-09-12T18:51:44","slug":"independents-swing-to-dems-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/analysis\/independents-swing-to-dems-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"Independents are Swinging to the Democrats, History Shows That’s a Big Deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"A series of recently released polls shows that President Trump is losing support among independent voters, a growing segment of the population that was key to his victory in 2016. According to the 2016 US House exit polls, Trump carried Independents by 4 points (46% <\/span>\u2013 <\/span>42%); other analyses give him a larger advantage. With the Republicans facing difficult contests in marginal suburban districts across the country, a significant deterioration of support among independent voters could be catastrophic to their efforts. In wave elections, the independent vote serves as a useful barometer for the depth of the change. <\/span><\/p>\n

Looking at Previous Wave Elections<\/span><\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Election<\/th>\nIndependent Vote Share<\/th>\nDemocrats<\/th>\nRepublicans<\/th>\nSeat Change<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
2006<\/td>\n26%<\/td>\n59%<\/td>\n41%<\/td>\nD+30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008<\/td>\n28%<\/td>\n54%<\/td>\n46%<\/td>\nD+21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010<\/td>\n28%<\/td>\n41%<\/td>\n59%<\/td>\nR+63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012<\/td>\n29%<\/td>\n46%<\/td>\n54%<\/td>\nD+8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/td>\n28%<\/td>\n44%<\/td>\n56%<\/td>\nR+13<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n45%<\/td>\n51%<\/td>\nD+6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2018<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n50%<\/td>\n35%<\/td>\n–<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sources:
\n2006 \u2013 2014: CBS\/NYT Exit Polls<\/a>
\n2016: CNN National Exit Poll<\/a>
\n2018: Quinnipiac University poll, Sept 2018<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As shown in \u00a0the table above, a significant swing in support among independents can be a hallmark of a wave election\u2014this is especially true in midterm elections, where Democratic turnout has generally been affected to a greater degree. With less than two months to go before election day, the most recent polls give Democrats an advantage among Independents, but it is too early to tell.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A series of recently released polls shows that President Trump is losing support among independent voters, a growing segment of the population that was key to his victory in 2016. According to the 2016 US House exit polls, Trump carried Independents by 4 points (46% \u2013 42%); other analyses give him a larger advantage. With […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":1231,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1220"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1220"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1220\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1232,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1220\/revisions\/1232"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/web-staging.ncecservices.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}