Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Frankens long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
May 17 Election Insider
Democrats Must Not Turn Their Backs on the Senate
The eyes of Americans are firmly fixated on the early-forming presidential campaign, but Democrats must not be complacent and single-minded or the consequences could be dire. Losing control of the Senate, which we hold by the thinnest of margins, would hinder our ability to pass legislation even if we controlled the White House. Many of the races in the Senate are beginning to take shape, and signs point to a very tough defense for Democrats. NCEC is firmly committed to holding control of Congress, but we'll need motivated Democrats to achieve our goals.
Republicans Have More Seats to Defend in the Senate This Cycle
One advantage Democrats have is that fewer Democrats than our Republican counterparts are up for reelection. Democrats have 12 seats to defend as opposed to 21 seats for the GOP. Republican seats are most vulnerable in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, which are all expected to be battlegrounds and offer opportunities for Democrats to expand our majority. Further, the possible retirement of Senator John Warner (R-VA) could open up another competitive race. Democrats proved they could be in successful in Virginia by defeating incumbent George Allen in 2006. An effective campaign strategy at the Senate level would be beneficial to the presidential race. Positive feelings about Democrats at all levels could help lead to the victory that we all seek in the race for the White House. However, if we fail to be aware of the consequences, we could very well lose control of the Senate. NCEC is working around the clock to make sure that this is prevented.
Outlook |
Democrats |
Republicans |
Battleground |
Mary Landrieu (LA), |
Wayne Allard/Open (CO),
|
Leans |
Mark Pryor (AR), Tom Harkin (IA) |
James Inhofe (OK), |
Safe |
Joe Biden (DE), |
Jeff Sessions (AL), |
| * Pending Possible Retirement |
The GOP Is Busy Recruiting Strong Candidates, Democrats Face a Tough Road Ahead
Regardless of how many vulnerable seats the GOP might have, they are moving forward by recruiting strong candidates to challenge our incumbents. Louisiana, Montana, and South Dakota are three states that are in danger of going Republican. These states are predominantly Republican in presidential politics, so the presidential race will bring an elevated Republican turnout, which could hurt the Democratic candidates.
The Democratic incumbent in the greatest danger of losing in 2008 is Mary Landrieu (D-LA), who has several factors working against her. She holds a seat in the Deep South, has already experienced close races in the past, and has seen her voting base fractured by Hurricane Katrina. We'll need a well-coordinated campaign to maintain control of this seat.
Senator Tim Johnson's future could control the fate of the seat in South Dakota. His health remains a big question mark in this race; the power of incumbency would be beneficial, but he may well retire due to his health concerns following his stroke in December of 2006. Even before Johnson's stroke, he faced a close race in 2000, so the seat would have been a target for the GOP even without his health problems. No candidate has announced intentions to run for the Republicans, but Governor Mike Rounds and several others are rumored to be preparing for a run.
Republicans are courting Congressman Denny Rehberg (MT-AL) to run against Democratic incumbent Max Baucus in Montana. It is unclear if Rehberg will decide to run, but if he were to do so, he would be a formidable candidate. Montana represents another state that is sure to vote Republican in the presidential race, so we can expect that Republican turnout will be up. Democrats did capture a Senate seat in Montana in 2006, but that gain can be attributed to the decidedly pro-Democrat political environment and former Senator Conrad Burns' ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
Difficult Pickup Opportunities Will Test Democrats
There are as many as five potential pickups for Democrats in the Senate, in Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, but each of these will test Democratic strategy and performance.
The best opportunity for the Democrats is Colorado, which is an open seat, and the Democrats have been united behind Congressman Mark Udall (CO-02) for some time to be their candidate. Republicans have recruited well-known former Congressman Bob Schafer to run, and this is sure to be a very close race. However, due to some of Schafer's far-right leanings, Udall is positioned to be the favorite.
Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have Democratic leanings, but the Republican senators from these states have built popularity with moderate records. A recent poll in Minnesota showed Senator Coleman with double-digit leads over both prospective Democratic candidates, but a poll this early isn't likely to reflect an accurate picture of the race; the same poll gave Coleman a mere 48% approval rating, and anything under 50% is considered vulnerable.
In Maine, Congressman Tom Allen (ME-01) has entered the race against Republican Senator Susan Collins. Senator Collins continues to try and soften her stance on the Iraq war by voting with several other Republicans in support of a withdrawal timetable from Iraq. Given recent pickups in New England for Democrats, this race will be one to watch as the competition heats up.
In many ways, maintaining control of Congress is as important as winning the presidency; control of both would ensure our ability to pass our agenda. The fate of the Senate is up in the air, and while most focus on the presidential campaign, many lose sight of the Senate and forget that we have a lot to lose. NCEC is one of very few organizations that are focused solely on keeping control of Congress. Our in-depth campaign technology will be instrumental to the organization of our campaigns. We can't afford to turn a “blind eye”.
