Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
April 12 Election Insider
Ohio: Familiar Territory Will Be Abuzz in 2008
Ohio has been a hotbed of political activity for the last two election cycles. The presidency was decided by fewer than 200,000 votes in 2004, but Democrats reversed the tide in 2006 by capturing a Senate seat and several House seats. The state will receive massive levels of attention in terms of the presidency, but it cannot be overlooked that there will be several close congressional races as well in 2008.
President: We all remember what happened in Ohio during the 2004 presidential election: voting machine malfunctions, long lines, and ultimate defeat for John Kerry. Following the election, numerous political pundits claimed that Republicans had defeated us in the turnout battle, but NCEC analysis shows that this was not the case. In fact, we did an impressive job turning out our voters, but population shifts over the past several years have made the state more Republican.
NCEC analysis shows that voter registration increased by 445,013 residents from 2000 to 2004, and only 20% of that gain took place in areas 60%+ Democratic performance, which amounts to 88,000 votes. Although registration grew by only 88,000 in those 60%+ areas, turnout was up 224,368 votes. Further, John Kerry won 66.4% in those precincts, 77.1% in the 70%+ precincts, 86.2% in the 80%+ precincts and 94.6% in the 90%+ precincts. Overall, turnout increased by 19.6% in Ohio in 2004, and in all areas of the state with a Democratic performance rating above 60%, turnout increased far beyond the mean. Therefore, the generally accepted contention that Republicans vastly won the turnout battle is false. The fact is that the state is simply more Republican than Democrat; our analysis shows that 4.9 million of the 7.8 million registered voters in Ohio reside in areas that have below 50% Democratic performance. Therefore, a victory by Democrats in a presidential campaign in this state is unlikely given the population demographics.
However, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown's victory over the Republican incumbent, Mike DeWine, in the 2006 election suggests that Democrats can win in statewide contests in Ohio . The decidedly pro-Democratic political environment in 2006 contributed to Brown's success, but his large margin of victory suggests that a well-run campaign by a Democrat in a pro-Democratic environment can result in victory. Though this is true, it is important for Democrats to expand victories to western or southern states to lessen the importance of Ohio .
Several House Races Up for Grabs in '08
The 2006 cycle was a cycle of near-misses in terms of House races in Ohio . Democrats were able to take one seat, but nearly got four. The political environment is unlikely to be as advantageous and Republican turnout will be up in 2008, but there remains ample opportunity for seat gains in the next cycle.
OH-01 Steve Chabot
The incumbent congressman, Steve Chabot, narrowly survived the 2006 campaign. Early on in the race, he was not considered a targeted candidate, but Democratic candidate John Cranley made this race very close. Chabot won by a mere 6 percentage points. This race may be targeted as a potential pickup in 2008.
OH-02 Jean Schmidt
Victoria Wulsin came within 2 percentage points of winning this race in a heavily Republican district with a Democratic performance below 40%. This will be another race worth watching when the Democratic candidate is named.
OH-05 Paul Gilmour
Robin Weirauch, the 2006 Democratic nominee, is back for another round with Republican incumbent, Paul Gilmour, and though this is a difficult seat for Democrats to win, she performed well in 2006, receiving 43% of the vote.
OH-15 Deborah Pryce
Mary Jo Kilroy, the 2006 Democratic nominee, is one of several near-winners from 2006 who have indicated that they will seek a rematch in 2008. Republican incumbent, Deborah Pryce, received large amounts of funding NRCC and still won by less than 1 percent. With Kilroy running again this seat is considered a prime target in 2008.
OH-18 Zach Space
Democrats won this seat in 2006 thanks to the Jack Abramoff scandals, which forced Congressman Bob Ney to resign and later put him in prison. This district is still very pro-Republican, so this will amount to a difficult hold for Space, but he will have the power of incumbency on his side.
NCEC is working diligently to expand the capabilities of our targeting and to deliver it to Democratic candidates as early as possible. Ohio will be a bellwether state for both the presidential and congressional race, and we can't afford to miss a beat.
