Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Frankens long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
March 9 Election Insider
New Mexico is Becoming a Key Battleground for 2008
In recent years politics in New Mexico have become increasingly compelling. The last two Presidential contests have featured down-to-the-wire races in the state, Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has barely won two successive House campaigns, and popular Governor Bill Richardson recently decided to seek the Presidency in 2008. Even with all this competition, the one seemingly safe concept was that incumbent Senator Pete Domenici would be safely reelected cycle after cycle. However, the release of recent facts concerning Republican activities during an ongoing investigation threatens to turn New Mexico 's political landscape upside down and present a previously unlikely opportunity to gain a crucial Senate seat.
New Mexico Is a Crucial State for any Democratic Nominee
The last two Presidential elections have been decided by razor-thin margins in New Mexico . In 2000 Al Gore won the state by fewer than 3,000 votes. President Bush carried the state by fewer than 6,000 in 2004, which ended a string of Democratic dominance in the state. This state is sure to be extremely close in 2008. The presence of popular Governor Bill Richardson on any Democratic ticket would significantly increase the likelihood of bringing this state back into the win column. However, if he is not included on the ticket, this will be another tight race, as Democrats try to find ways to expand their victories in the western part of the country.
Both Domenici and Wilson Mentioned in Developing Scandal
Former U.S. attorney David C. Iglesias testified Tuesday in back-to-back House and Senate hearings that he received improper phone calls in October of 2006 from both Senator Pete Domenici and Rep. Heather Wilson soliciting information into the ongoing investigation into a local Democrat. The Senate's ethics manual says Senate offices should refrain from intervening in pending court actions "until the matter has reached a resolution in the courts." Iglesias alleged that both Sen. Domenici and Rep. Wilson were trying to obtain information about whether or not sealed indictments would be handed down before the 2006 election. Obviously, the timing of these actions is key, as Republicans were looking for any news possible to change public sentiment. These allegations among others have set off a new round of ethics probes into the former GOP congress. The affects that this scandal could have on New Mexico politics could be far reaching.
Scandal Could Make Wilson Even More Vulnerable in 2008.
Congresswoman Heather Wilson narrowly escaped defeat in 2006. She defeated Democratic candidate Patricia Madrid by fewer than 900 votes, and is considered a vulnerable candidate in 2008. Her alleged involvement in the potential scandal mentioned above will only increase her vulnerability. The shadow of Governor Bill Richardson may cast itself over this race. If he were to be the Democratic nominee for President or on the Democratic ticket, it could increase Democratic turnout in this congressional district. Once again finding a solid candidate to run for the Democrats will be crucial.
Change is Not Expected in Other House Districts
The remaining two Congressional districts in New Mexico are home to popular incumbents who will likely be reelected in 2008. Both Republican Steve Pearce (R-NM02) and Democrat Tom Udall (D-NM03) easily won reelection in 2006, and have remained outside the brewing scandal. Pearce received 60% of the vote in 2006, while Udall enjoyed 75% of the vote in his district.
Senate Pickup Still Unlikely Without a Great Candidate
Prior to the release of this story, NCEC did not consider the coming Senate race in New Mexico to be a first-tier race. However, the possible effects of this story may change our outlook. Senator Domenici handily won reelection in 2002 with 65% of the vote. Conventional wisdom would suggest that he would cruise to victory in 2008 unless there were an event that changed the public's view of him, much as former Virginia Senator George Allen's infamous “macaca” statement did for him in 2006. While the allegations involving Domenici are nowhere near as blatant as the Allen quote, they could evoke memories of the corruption that plagued the GOP-led congress, which helped lead to the Democratic sweep in 2006. Depending on the quality of the Democratic candidate, this Senate race may become interesting. Domenici has already acknowledged the unethical contact with Iglesias and has since apologized, but he denies that he was applying pressure. If the investigation continues, the race could become winnable for the right Democratic candidate.
Richardson for Senate?
Governor Bill Richardson continues to be a popular figure in his state. A January 11 American Research Group poll showed that New Mexicans prefer Richardson over any of the big-name contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination. However, this is not the sentiment in nationwide polls, which have Richardson running well behind the three front-runners. His foreign policy credentials make him an attractive vice presidential nominee for Democrats, but if he were to abandon his presidential campaign in favor of a shot at the Senate, this race would become close overnight. This whole scenario is mere speculation, but if he were to run for Senate he would make the most attractive possible candidate. However, it is very unlikely that he will decide to forego his current bid for the Presidency.
The developing scandal may have a large influence on the 2008 election in New Mexico . Heather Wilson may have finally run out of luck, and the Presidential race is sure to be very close. This state will be an interesting one to watch on election night.
