Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
An Early Look at the Pennsylvania Primary
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon. The early primaries have produced a narrow Obama lead, with the Clinton campaign salvaged by victories in Ohio and Texas . The April 22 Pennsylvania primary is a must-win state for Clinton , while Obama concentrates on maintaining a lead in delegates and national total vote.
For the Democratic Party, the most expensive primary season in history has also generated unprecedented voter interests: in states that held primaries in both 2000 and 2004, turnout has increased by an astonishing 93 percent. Moreover, turnout in the Democratic primaries has trumped Republican interest in virtually every marginal congressional district, including most of the districts where Democrats amassed gains in 2006.
Looking at the Pennsylvania electorate, three recent polls suggest that Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead over Barack Obama. While it is true that Obama is outspending Clinton on television and has garnered interest when he focuses on individual states, Clinton seems likely to hold her lead, for several reasons:
The African-American vote, although important, represents a far smaller share of the electorate in Pennsylvania than it does in the southern states, where Obama ran strongly. Moreover, Philadelphia 's Mayor, Michael Nutter, is a Clinton supporter. Although Obama will likely carry the Philadelphia area, it is possible that Nutter's support will enable Clinton to win more black votes than in other states.
Based on the demographic composition of the Philadelphia suburbs, Obama should amass a plurality in the wealthier and better educated parts of the Philadelphia media market. Combined with support in congressional districts 1 and 2, Obama's popularity in the suburbs should enable him to win a substantial number of delegates in the eastern portion of the state. Even in Ohio , a state that replicates the Pennsylvania electorate in some respects, Obama defeated Clinton in university communities and several high-income suburbs. Yet Clinton still won the state by a 12 percent margin.
Blue-collar cities in Western Pennsylvania favor Clinton at this juncture, and this is likely to propel her to a statewide majority. The blue-collar cities experiencing economic unrest — especially Scranton , Johnstown , Altoona and Wilkes Barre, with older and more blue-collar voters — strongly favor Clinton . Clinton is also ahead in the Pittsburgh area, especially in the 14th congressional district. With an aging population, Western Pennsylvania seems like favorable territory for Clinton .
That leaves a few regions in which neither candidate enjoys an inherent advantage or early lead. If Obama is to make the race competitive, these are the areas where he must make inroads. For example, the Lehigh Valley , formerly a blue-collar enclave, has experienced a modest economic revival. The immersion of younger, more white-collar residents affords Obama an opportunity in Allentown and Bethlehem . This area should also test Clinton 's resonance with Hispanic voters, as they are a more important element in the 15th congressional district than in other parts of the state.
Another intriguing area for Obama is the emerging southeastern part of Pennsylvania . Although it has been heavily Republican in general elections, younger suburban Democrats are migrating to York and Lancaster in surprisingly large numbers. Obama could carry the 16th and 18th congressional districts encompassing York and Lancaster. Finally, student support emanating from Penn State University should assist Obama in the 5th congressional district.
In conclusion, Pennsylvania 's demographics, along with the support of Governor Rendell, Mayor Nutter and other officials, confer a strong advantage to Hillary Clinton. It will be a major upset if Obama erases Clinton 's lead. However, it is quite plausible that Obama will garner a sizable number of Pennsylvania delegates, maintaining his national lead in pledge delegates.
Looking toward the November election, three recent polls suggest that John McCain is even with or ahead of both Clinton and Obama. Pennsylvania has supported a Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1988. Without Pennsylvania 's 21 electoral votes, a Democratic general election victory is highly unlikely.
