Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
February 12 Election Insider
Bush’s 2008 Budget Confirms His Commitment to “Bait-and-Switch” and “Sleight-of-Hand” Accounting
The release of the President's budget for the next year provides insight into the priorities of the Bush administration, and forecast how the Republicans see the future in their perfect worlds. If passed, the budget will have negative effects for years to come, all in the name of preserving tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, and achieving a balanced budget on the backs of the middle and lower classes.
The centerpiece of the new budget is protecting the tax cuts that were passed in 2001 and 2003. If passed, this budget would make those tax cuts permanent at a cost of $1.6 trillion over the next 10 years. The administration claims that this proposal will provide a balanced budget, and eventually lead to a budget surplus by 2012, but many have already disputed this claim. Recent estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) suggest, “It would be difficult to balance the budget if the tax cuts—a collection of rate reductions and tax credits that have reduced Treasury collections by an estimated $1 trillion since 2001—continue.” The CBO also predicts, “If the tax cuts and other expiring tax provisions are extended, the deficit would hit $146 billion in 2012 and grow thereafter as healthcare costs skyrocket and the baby-boom generation retires.” Protection of their tax cuts has led the administration to manipulate its calculations in order to make it appear that this budget is financially sound. As some have pointed out, this budget doesn't address the Alternative Minimum Tax, which threatens to punish millions of middle-class taxpayers in the coming years. The President simply decided not to address it. They are manipulating their calculations in order to achieve their goals, which is a reoccurring theme for this administration.
This proposal shows how Republicans plan to solve the deficit they created, by further squeezing social programs that are exclusively used by the middle and lower classes. If this budget passes it will have tumultuous effects on our country long into the future. This proposal calls for cuts in domestic spending across the board, taking dramatic effect long after he has left office. Under this budget, domestic programs would be cut $34 billion in 2012, or 7.6 percent relative to 2007 spending levels according to the Center for Budget Priorities. The graph below shows a timeline in cuts called for by this proposal.
Under this budget, several areas of public policy would lose significant funding over the next few years including education, environmental protection, veteran's health care, and medical research. Medicare and Medicaid funding would be cut by $101 billion over the next 5 years. Shamefully, the proposal does not provide enough money to sustain current enrollment for the Children's Health Insurance Program, which seeks to provide poor children with health insurance. Other aspects of the program to be cut include HIV/AIDS programs, substance abuse, and mental health care. Other cuts include such programs as Head Start, and access to food stamps, all in the name of preserving tax cuts for the rich. President Bush is trying to leave a legacy of fiscal irresponsibility that will follow us into the next decade.
Defense spending is the one area that receives a large increase in funding, a whopping 11% increase. The proposal asks for $93.4 billion more for fiscal year 2007 to pay for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq , on top of the $70 billion already provided this year. In 2008, the proposal calls for $481.4 billion in defense spending, along with $141.7 billion in emergency supplemental funding for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq . Sadly, these figures do not include the money needed to pay for the President's new troop surge “plan.” However, in 2009, only $50 billion is requested for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq . This drop-off in the cost of the wars is essential to the administration's future financial projections. However, the administration denied that this projection represented any kind of a timetable for the war, and refused to explain further.
White House Can't Distinguish Between Rhetoric and Reality-and Doesn't Care
The new budget further shows the contradiction between what George W. Bush says and what he does. For instance, he began his first term as President wanting to be known as the “Education President,” yet his new budget proposal would cut K-12 funding by 6.8% by 2012. Recently, President Bush made protection of the environment one of the main themes of his recent State of the Union address, only to purpose slashes to EPA funding by $20.1 billion over the next four years. Some of these cuts include conservation and land management, recreational resources such as national parks, and pollution control and abatement. Funding for pollution control, which covers water safety would be cut by $706 million in 2008 and by $1.4 billion, or 15.7 percent, in 2012. As in previous years, there is no consistency between the rhetoric and the action of the Bush White House.
This budget proposal showcases the importance of our success in the 2006 election. With control of both houses of Congress, Democrats will be able to fight this budget and force change. In 2008, we must extend our majority in both houses to assure that Democratic priorities steer the country.
