Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Early Primaries Show Renewed Vigor Among Voters;
Democratic and Independent Turnout Bodes Well for November
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country. Iowa has shown us that Americans are in the mood for change—and for a Democrat. Beyond who won, the striking thing about the results in Iowa , as well as New Hampshire , was the dramatic turnout on the Democratic side. According to the results, more than 239,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans voted in the Democratic caucus in Iowa . This turnout is astounding, far eclipsing the previous high in 2004, when more than 122,000 people participated in the Democratic caucus. In comparison, only 125,000 people participated in the Republican caucus. This large gap shows that Independents and younger voters are supporting Democrats, and it is especially interesting in a state like Iowa , which was decided by less than one percentage point in both the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Independents and Young Voters Favor Democratic Candidates and Make the Difference in Iowa
The Iowa caucus is an open caucus, allowing Independents to vote with either Democrats or Republicans, and their influence was felt. According to exit polls, Independents made up 20 percent of the vote in the Democratic caucus, amounting to more than 42,000 voters. By contrast, they made up only 13 percent of the vote in the Republican caucus, amounting to just a fraction more than 16,000 voters, an unprecedented difference. The results in Iowa show the power of the Independent vote. Their support helped fuel Barack Obama's victory in the caucus. The exit polls show that 41 percent of Independents voted for Obama, as opposed to 23 percent for John Edwards and just 17 percent for Hillary Clinton. Regardless of which candidate they supported, the sheer size of the turnout of Independents in the Democratic caucus bodes extremely well for the general election prospects of the eventual Democratic candidate.
In addition to Independents, young voters were a large element of the increased turnout. The exit polls again showed that 22 percent of voters were between the ages of 17 and 22, for a total of more than 52,000 voters. This share matched the share of the 65-and-older age group.
In 2004, only 17 percent of voters were ages 17 to 22, which amounted to nearly 21,000 votes, as opposed to 27 percent from the 65-and-older age group. This increase in turnout among youth voters is an exciting turn of events. Like Independents, young voters powered Barack Obama's victory. Fifty-seven percent of them supported Barack Obama, as opposed to 14 percent for John Edwards and 11 percent for Hillary Clinton.
New Hampshire : In Every Way Different, Yet the Same
Despite different winners for both parties in the New Hampshire primary, the real implications are similar to those in Iowa and positive for Democrats. In New Hampshire , Democrats saw an unprecedented turnout far outpacing the Republicans. More than 280,000 Democrats, Independents, and Republicans turned out to vote in the Democratic primary, as opposed to fewer than 230,000 in the Republican primary. As was the case in Iowa , this turnout is historic and shows the level of interest surrounding the Democratic candidates. Once again, young voters and Independents came out in record numbers in the Democratic primary, showing that new segments of the population are engaged and excited about Democratic candidates. Young voters between the ages of 18 and 24 made up 11 percent of the turnout, meaning that more than 31,000 young voters got out to vote in the primary.
It can't be forgotten that New Hampshire has been a swing state in the last two presidential elections, and President Bush actually carried the state in 2004. A little more than three years later, 50,000 more voters participated in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary. It is clear that we have the better field of candidates, and the public is leaning our way.
Super Tuesday, February 5, Could Decide the Nomination
With Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton splitting the first two contests of the primary season, there is no clear front-runner in the race for the Democratic nomination. The lack of an early front-runner makes “Super Tuesday” even more important than in past years. On February 5, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah will hold caucuses or primaries, and the candidate who performs best on this day will likely win the Democratic nomination, as control of 2,075 delegates will be up for grabs. The table below shows the most recent polling from each of these states, but it is important to note that most of these polls were taken before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.
Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008 22 States in Close Democratic Contest |
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Caucus State (delegates) |
Poll Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Alaska (18) |
|
No current polls |
||
Colorado (71) |
Sep 2007 |
29% |
23% |
23% |
Idaho (23) |
Jul 2007 |
31% |
15% |
33% |
Kansas (41) |
|
No current polls |
||
Minnesota (88) |
Sep 2007 |
47% |
16% |
22% |
North Dakota (21) |
|
No current polls |
||
|
|
|
|
|
Primary State (delegates) |
Poll Date |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Obama |
Alabama (60) |
Nov 2007 |
46% |
6% |
25% |
Arizona (67) |
Nov 2007 |
44% |
11% |
14% |
Arkansas (47) |
Dec 2007 |
57% |
14% |
17% |
California (441) |
Jan 2008 |
47% |
10% |
31% |
Connecticut (60) |
Nov 2007 |
45% |
7% |
19% |
Delaware (23) |
Oct 2007 |
41% |
7% |
17% |
Georgia (103) |
Jan 2008 |
33% |
14% |
36% |
Illinois (185) |
Dec 2007 |
25% |
7% |
50% |
Massachusetts (121) |
|
No current polls |
||
Missouri (88) |
Nov 2007 |
36% |
20% |
21% |
New Jersey (127) |
Jan 2008 |
42% |
9% |
30% |
New Mexico (38) |
|
No current polls |
||
New York (281) |
Dec 2007 |
55% |
7% |
17% |
Oklahoma (47) |
Dec 2007 |
34% |
25% |
15% |
Tennessee (85) |
|
No current polls |
||
Utah (29) |
Oct 2007 |
31% |
9% |
18% |
NCEC Expands Its Role with Innovative Targeting Technology
NCEC's acute awareness of the importance of this election makes us work harder than ever to expand our program of providing every candidate with our state-of-the-art campaign technology and get-out-the-vote targeting. NCEC is using more precise methods to predict voter turnout by analyzing both current and past demographic trends. We're offering our candidates increased visual representation of the data, which allows campaigns to identify key neighborhoods and households in order to facilitate more direct voter contact. We are offering more dynamic targeting using both polling and updated demographic trend information for revised turnout and vote-goal data, which is updated as the campaign progresses. Further, the applicability of the data is being extended, as it is now tailored for radio media purchase, cable television, and various field activities: mail campaigns, voter identification systems, phone banks, canvassing, and individual household contacts . Innovation is key to staying ahead of the Republicans, and as NCEC leads Democratic campaigns into this election season, our candidates are armed with the most sophisticated tools ever designed to win elections. Without your help, NCEC would not be able to play its leading role in progressive politics.
