Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
GOP Retirements Continue, Favoring Democrats in the House
The 2008 election landscape is increasingly positive for Democrats. Republican retirements in the House and Senate have kept the GOP on the defensive, as several members have decided not to seek reelection in competitive districts. The recent retirements of Mike Ferguson and Jim McCrery brought the number of GOP retirements at the end of the term to 19, as opposed to just five for Democrats.
Rash of Open Seats Will Produce Competitive Races
The rash of recent Republican retirements is sure to result in several competitive races and increased opportunities for Democratic pickups. Some of the districts in question are more competitive than others, but even in conservative districts the GOP will spend money to defend its seats. As alluded to in a previous Election Insider, open seats change hands more frequently than do those held by incumbents. In watershed elections such as those of 1974, 1994, and 2006, the presence of open seats helped fuel the large seat change that either expanded one party's control over the House or helped throw that party out of power. In 1974, Democrats flipped 13 Republican open seats to their control as part of the angry response to the Watergate scandal. In 1994, Republicans gobbled up 22 open Democratic seats on their way to sweeping Democrats out of power in Congress. In 2006, Democrats picked up eight open Republican seats, which was more than half the total necessary to gain control of the House. The table below shows an updated list of House retirements as well as the Democratic percentages in the 2006 House races and the 2004 presidential race in these districts.
| District | member | Dem% 2006 | Kerry% | Status |
| AL-02 | Terri Everett | 34.1% | 33.0% | Retireing |
| AZ-01 | Rick Renzi | 45.6% | 45.8% | Retireing |
| CO-06 | Tom Tancredo | 40.4% | 39.3% | Running for President |
| CA-52 | Duncan Hunter | 33.1% | 26.9% | Running for President |
| IL-11 | Jerry Weller | 44.9% | 46.3% | Retiring |
| IL-18 | Ray LaHood | 32.7% | 41.9% | Retiring |
| LA-02 | Bobby Jindal | 24.1% | 29.1% | Governor-Elect |
| LA-04 | Jim McCrery | 30.1% | 40.4% | Retiring |
| MN-03 | Jim Ramstad | 43.9% | 48.5% | Retiring |
| MS-03 | Jim Pickering | Unopposed | 34.4% | Retiring |
| NM-01 | Heather Wilson | 49.7% | 51.7% | Running for Senate |
| NM-02 | Steve Pearce | 40.5% | 41.7% | Running for Senate |
| NM-03 | Tom Udall | 74.6% | 54.2% | Running for Senate |
| NJ-03 | Jim Saxson | 41.2% | 48.7% | Retiring |
| NJ-07 | Mike Ferguson | 41.2% | 46.6% | Retiring |
| OH-07 | David Hobson | 39.3% | 42.7% | Retiring |
| OH-15 | Deborah Pryce | 49.7% | 49.9% | Retiring |
| OH-16 | Ralph Regula | 41.6% | 46.0% | Retiring |
| VA-11 | Tom Davis | 44.0% | 49.7% | Retiring |
| WY-01 | Barbara Cubin | 49.7% | 29.7% | Retiring |
| District | Member | Dem% 2006 | Kerry% | Status |
| CO-02 | Mark Udall | 70.6% | 58.7% | Running for Senate |
| ME-00 | Tom Allen | 66.0% | 56.1% | Running for Senate |
| NY-20 | Mike McNutly | 71.1% | 52.3% | Retiring |
| NM-03 | Tom Udall | 74.6% | 54.2% | Running for Senate |
| OH-05 | Darlene Hooley | 55.7% | 49.4% | Retiring |
For more information on each of these races, go to the NCEC Candidate Center .
Results in OH-05 Don't Match Republican Claims
While it is true that, as expected, the Republicans won last night's special election in OH-05, the results don't match what the Republicans are claiming as a sign of things to come in 2008. An in-depth look at the early results shows that Weirauch won 43% in both the special last night and the 2006 general election. However, that overall result clouds several surprising trend lines.
The results in Wood County were responsible for the larger gap, but gains were made everywhere else in the district. Weirauch needed about 55% of the vote in Wood County to win the race; she received 49.6% in '06 and won only 45.2% in the special election. Furthermore, Wood represented 23.1% of the total vote last night, as opposed to 19.8% in November 2006. Without precinct data, it would be difficult to know whether the student vote was low. In any event, this result made it impossible for Weirauch to win no matter what happened in the rest of the district.
Three counties, Sandusky , Seneca, and Wood, cast about 44% of the total vote in the special election, as opposed to 39% in 2006. Weirauch dramatically improved upon her 2006 performance by +4.5% in Sandusky and came within 1% and 2% of the needed votes in Seneca and Sandusky , respectively. Had Weirauch performed as well in Wood, the district-wide result would have been much closer, although she would have lost by a 46-54 or 47-53 margin.
In terms of '08 trend lines and the vaunted GOP turnout program, there is good news that refutes GOP prowess.
Turnout was 23.5% district-wide. However, it was above average in the areas where Weirauch tended to run better, and where the population is larger.
Here is a rundown of high turnout counties:
HENRY: 30.6% turnout; Weirauch 42.4% or -0.9% 07/06
SENECA: 29.8% turnout; Weirauch 46.3% or +5.9% 07/06
LUCAS: 26.3% turnout; Weirauch 46.4% or -1.5% 07/06
DEFIANCE : 25.8% turnout; Weirauch 45.0% or +0.1% 07/06
SANDUSKY : 25.6% turnout; Weirauch 46.8% or +4.5% 07/06
Furthermore, turnout was low in five of the most Republican counties in the district.
VAN WERT: 19.4%
WYANDOT: 19.3%
HURON: 16.3%
MERCER: 16.2%
ASHLAND : 12.5%
Bottom line: We needed a depressed Republican base to win this race. In fact, there is some indication of diminished Republican interest, but not enough to turn around a district like this. Furthermore, Weirauch's astonishing failure in Wood County and, to a lesser extent, in Lucas County (only 3% of the district vote) made it impossible for her to win.
There is no real indication that this matters in 2008, with one exception: Other than the scandal-generated victories (Mahoney, Lampson, Carney, Space, and McNerney), we won only districts that were 46% or more Democratic, and I would argue that results will be similar in 2008. Don't forget, to the extent that we were surprised by '06 results, it was the Democratic districts (Loebsack, Shea-Porter) that surprised us.
