Election Insider
January 25 Election Insider
The 2010 census will have an obvious effect on congressional politics as districts are created, eliminated, and redrawn, but a story receiving far less attention is its impact on presidential electoral politics, as states gain and surrender electoral votes due to this reapportionment of districts.
July 1 Election Insider
Al Franken’s long awaited victory in the Minnesota recount has given Democrats a 60 seat majority in the U.S. Senate. This represents the first time since 1979 that either party has enjoyed this large of a majority. While we celebrate the success of the last 3 years, our attention is focused on 2010.
June 30 Election Insider
Even with a strong Democratic majority in the House, there will be votes that will be decided by the smallest of margins. Last Friday, the majority was challenged with the passage of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, which seeks to curb the effects of global warming and end our dependence on foreign energy sources.
May 5 Election Insider
It's easy to believe that the good times will continue for the Democrats. The last two elections were debacles for Republicans in Congress; the GOP's aggregate net loss in Congress was 51 seats. From a once clear majority in 1994, Republicans have been marginalized and now control fewer seats than at any time since 1992.
February 24 Election Insider
The American electoral landscape is in a state of flux. New areas such as suburban and developing exurban counties are carrying more weight in elections as their populations grow.
December 10 Election Insider
After losing more than 50 House seats in the last two elections, the Republicans will be looking to 1994 as a source of inspiration for their goal of retaking control of congress.
December 8 Election Insider
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular.
October 28 Election Insider
The country's attention is firmly set on November 4, but if the Democrats are serious about getting to 60 seats in the Senate, they may need to maintain their motivation for weeks following Election Day.
October 23 Election Insider
At the beginning of the campaign cycle, few political analysts would have dreamed that the Democrats could take the smallest of majorities and extend it to a 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority in just one term.
October 17 Election Insider
When the Democrats won 30 seats in the House in 2006, many saw that as the absolute high-water mark in terms of seat gains in one election cycle, given today's gerrymandered districts.
October 14 Election Insider
The impressive ground game exhibited by the Obama campaign in the primary has continued right through the general election campaign.
September 22 Election Insider
The battleground states that will decide the 2008 presidential election have been clearly identified, but the key to winning those states is still a matter of conjecture, as different political strategists offer differing ideas.
September 8 Election Insider
As the election rapidly approaches in this closely divided country, there is much discussion about the various Electoral College vote scenarios and the combination of states that Barack Obama or John McCain need to win.
August 12 Election Insider
CBS News features an analysis by Mark Gersh, NCEC Washington Director, and Anthony Salvano of CBS news, showing why Barack Obama has a serious chance to win Colorado in 2008.
July 23 Election Insider
In 2004, national polls in the presidential race showed the volatility of public opinion at the time, as both candidates held slim leads at different times in the campaign.
July 11 Election Insider
Political pundits are making outlandish predictions about Democratic gains in the House in 2008, in some cases predicting a 30+ seat gain.
June 9 Election Insider
Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.
May 22 Election Insider
Last week's Democratic victory in the special election in Mississippi 's First District was nothing short of spectacular. This victory made Democrats a perfect three for three in special elections in 2008, all of which took place in traditionally strong GOP districts in Illinois , Louisiana , and Mississippi.
May 7 Election Insider
The North Carolina and Indiana primaries may have forced clarity upon the Democratic presidential race last night. With the math of the delegate race becoming increasingly implausible for the Clinton campaign, it is likely that the marathon race is close to a conclusion.
April 24 Election Insider
Political attention continues to be dominated by the seemingly never-ending drama for the Democratic presidential nomination, but while the Clinton and Obama camps slug it out, Democrats supporting either candidate are working tirelessly to solidify the Democratic majority in the Senate.
April 10 Election Insider
The results of the Democratic primary runoff last week suggest that a Democratic victory in the upcoming special election is very possible.
March 25 Election Insider
As this excursion from the frantic primary calendar unfolds, Pennsylvania is the next important primary on the horizon.
March 11 Election Insider
The Democratic Party scored a major victory last week, and unlike most current stories in politics, it had little to do with the presidential primaries.
February 25 Election Insider
So much has changed since Hillary Clinton won in New Hampshire. Barack Obama has turned the tide in his direction, scoring 10 straight victories and making inroads into every segment of the population that had overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.
February 15 Election Insider
The wealth of presidential primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday and beyond have failed to produce a clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination but have shown a population increasingly tuned in to and motivated by the Democratic contest.
February 4 Election Insider
The most striking feature of the Democratic primary season, at least to date, has been remarkable turnout. State after state -- Iowa , New Hampshire , South Carolina , Nevada , Florida -- has established turnout records.
January 31 Election Insider
Bereft of delegates to the National Convention, a penalty imposed by the Democratic National Committee for noncompliance with the prescribed calendar, Florida nevertheless is worth a look.
January 23 Election Insider
In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton 's unexpected victory in New Hampshire , some of which carried over to Nevada .
January 15 Election Insider
The Iowa caucus is one of the most influential events in the presidential nomination process. It is a strong indicator of the mood of the country.
For more information on NCEC's Election Insider contact Michael Piel at 202-639-8300.
Election Insider
Democratic Gains in the Exurbs Produce Dramatic Victory in Ohio
In the end, the 2008 election did not shatter all previous turnout records as many of the political theorists predicted. Overall, in terms of turnout, the election was more ordinary than spectacular. This is not bad news for Democrats, because they succeeded in winning in areas that had recently been off-limits to them without the once in a lifetime turnout. The results have shown a more subtle shift in the American electorate towards Democrats, especially in America 's suburbs and exurban areas, which began in 2006. Take the state of Ohio as a prime example where statewide voter turnout actually declined in 2008. Ohio Democrats have produced a decisive comeback over the past four years: gaining the Governorship, winning a U.S. Senate seat, increasing their numbers in the House of Representatives by 3 seats, and for the first time since 1996, winning the state's electoral votes by a 202,170 vote margin. No massive influx of minority voters has occurred, which can sometimes explain these reversals in other areas. This victory was facilitated by slight demographic changes, an impressive ground game, and a breakthrough in suburban and exurban parts of the state. In 2004, John Kerry lost Ohio by 118,601 votes; Barack Obama scored a net gain of 320,771 votes in claiming Ohio for the Democrats in 2008.
Exit Polls Show Gains Among All Types of Voters
Election returns reveal that the Democratic victory was hardly a fluke: gains were amassed among virtually all demographic and geographic groups. The role of young voters is hard to overstate, as Obama amassed a 25% margin with voters 18-29 years old. He also won Moderates (45% of the electorate) by a 61%-38% margin, and was able to garner a surprising 22% among self-identified conservative voters. In comparison to 2004, these numbers are astounding. John Kerry received just 56% of the vote among voters 18-29, and just 13% among self-identified conservatives.
The demographics of Ohio 's electorate further reveal the fundamental changes that have lead to a Democratic majority. Most compelling is the dramatic change in Ohio 's partisan landscape. As recently as 2004, exit poll data confirmed a 5% Republican advantage (40%-35). 2008 produced a seismic change in partisanship, with Democrats possessing a 39%-31% advantage. The enormous change in the Ohio landscape is accentuated by John McCain's narrowing of the gap among Independents to 8%, compared to the 19% deficit that George Bush trumped in 2004. Obama's 89%-10% margin among Democrats and historical 97%-2% margin with African-Americans was insurmountable.
The Democratic success in Ohio was also underpinned by pluralities among all education groups and most income levels. From non-high school educated voters to post-graduates, and every income earning up to $100,000 Democrats enjoyed an advantage. For example, middle-class voters (earning 30,000-$100,000 per year) - 58% of the electorate - accorded Obama a 6% advantage. Further, Obama received at least 40% support from all income levels above $100,000. Clearly, exit polls shows that the Obama campaign succeeded in gaining support across the electorate.
More Important than Demographics, Democrats Make Inroads in GOP Territory
More important than simple exit poll data is to look at how the voting trends in the state are shifting. Barack Obama outperformed John Kerry among voters in all geographic areas, signaling a shift in the state that could have tremendous effect on the future. While Obama's exceeding John Kerry's margins in urban areas ( Cleveland , Cincinnati , Columbus , Toledo , Dayton ) was not surprising, his breakthrough in suburban and exurban areas was enormously impressive. After all, it is in these areas where the majority of swing voters reside. Obama won 40.4% of the vote in Ohio 's exurban counties (3.6% above Kerry's level); a solid majority in metropolitan and suburban counties (52.3%), overwhelming support in inner suburban counties with large populations (62.3%), and exceeded John Kerry's vote by 3.5% in micropolitan and rural counties.
The importance of these numbers may get lost to the casual observer, but these gains in suburban and exurban counties were the most important factor for Democrats in Ohio . Exurban counties represent the fastest growing areas in Ohio , and continued success there could have an enormous impact on future elections. Three counties exemplify Ohio 's exurbs -- Warren and Clermont in the Cincinnati media market and Delaware in the Columbus area. Obama sharply eroded Republican majorities in Warren (4,624 votes), Clermont (6,899 votes) and Delaware (8,273 votes) compared to John Kerry's showing in 2004. This increased competitiveness was brought on by growth in these areas; projected voting age population has grown by 96,385 over the past years. Subsequently, Obama was able to dampen the Republican exurban margin by a crucial 64,002 votes -almost half of Kerry's 2004 deficit. It's not imperative for Democrats to win these counties to succeed in statewide races because of their natural advantage in urban counties, but if this level of competition becomes commonplace, Republican prospects in Ohio could be permanently damaged.
As the next election approaches, Republicans are facing a big dilemma in Ohio . How can they attack this situation? Democratic support is growing in exurban and suburban areas, and their advantage in urban areas remains intact. Overall, Obama's margins in the large city-inner suburban counties exceed the McCain plurality in rural, micropolitan and exurban counties. In 2008, Obama's advantage was 202,170 votes. This formula envisions a Democratic majority in the state, as long as the Republicans fail to restore their hegemony in Ohio 's suburbs.
As suggested earlier, the Democratic advantage in Ohio 's urban counties remains strong. In fact, in the three largest counties in Ohio -- Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin -- representing 28.6% of the state-wide vote, Obama amassed an insurmountable 363,453 margin. For the first time in 44 years, a Democratic candidate won a plurality in Republican Hamilton County , winning 52.6% of the vote. Obama also carried Franklin County ( Columbus ) by an astounding 99,806 votes - more than doubling John Kerry's 2004 margin. As recently as 2000, this county was evenly divided between Al Gore and George W. Bush. In addition to the strong performance in the "big three counties", Obama nearly tripled Kerry's margin in blue-collar Stark ( Canton ) and Summit ( Akron ), and ran 18,309 votes ahead of Kerry in Lucas ( Toledo ).
Other urban counties, such as Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) the largest county in Ohio accorded Obama a 435,604 plurality, generating a 242,707 margin – 15,804 greater than John Kerry's margin. All this was achieved despite a 6.2% drop in overall turnout. Obviously, the Obama campaign was extremely successful getting Democrats to the polls, while Republicans remained unmotivated.
A complete analysis of Ohio 's counties also shows that Obama amassed a larger margin than Kerry in 76 of 88 counties, performing better than Kerry in every county accounting for 2% or more of the state-wide vote, with the exception of Mahoning and Trumbull.
The 2008 election was the culmination of a Democratic comeback in the state, precipitated by a sharp decline in Ohio 's economy, but equally impacted by a slow and steady erosion of Republican ranks among the better-educated and affluent, middle-class suburban Ohio voters. Regarding the future, Republicans must be alarmed about their minority status in the suburbs and declining share of the vote in the fast-growing counties of Ohio , which just a few years ago, seemed to portend a bright future for the GOP. There simply aren't enough rural and small-town voters in Ohio to sustain a Republican majority.
